English

Multi seasonal discrete time risk model revisited

Probability 2022-07-08 v1

Abstract

In this work we set up the distribution function of M:=supn1i=1n(Zi1)\mathcal{M}:=\sup_{n\geqslant1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}{(Z_i-1)}, where the random walk i=1nZi,nN,\sum_{i=1}^{n}Z_i, n\in\mathbb{N}, is generated by NN periodically occurring distributions and the integer-valued and non-negative random variables Z1,Z2,Z_1,\,Z_2,\,\ldots are independent. The considered random walk generates so-called multi seasonal discrete time risk model, and a known distribution of random variable M\mathcal{M} enables to calculate ultimate time ruin or survival probability. Verifying obtained theoretical statements we demonstrate several computational examples for survival probability P(M<u)\mathbb{P}(\mathcal{M}< u) when N=2,3N=2,\,3 or 1010.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2207.03196,
  title  = {Multi seasonal discrete time risk model revisited},
  author = {Andrius Grigutis and Jonas Jankauskas and Jonas Šiaulys},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2207.03196},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

v1, 23 pages, 1 table; submitted for the peer review