相关论文: Can Future Events Influence the Present?

Learning is a process which can update decision rules, based on past experience, such that future performance improves. Traditionally, machine learning is often evaluated under the assumption that the future will be identical to the past in…

Simulations play important and diverse roles in statistical workflows, for example, in model specification, checking, validation, and even directly in model inference. Over the past decades, the application areas and overall potential of…

In this note, we provide critical commentary on two articles that cast doubt on the validity and implications of Birnbaum's theorem: Evans (2013) and Mayo (2014). In our view, the proof is correct and the consequences of the theorem are…

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the…

The Delayed-Choice Quantum Eraser experiment is commonly interpreted as implying that in quantum mechanics a choice made at one time can influence an earlier event. We here suggest an extension of the experiment that results in a paradox…

A discrete-time random process is described which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time $t$ is given by a fixed probability $x$, is modified to include a memory…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

Asynchronous event sequences are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. In this work, we tackle the task of predicting the next event (given a history), and how this prediction changes with the passage of time.…

This note replies Dr. Jensen (2010) comments on Problem 2.3, which was left in Fuh (2010). In the following, we use the same notations and definitions in Fuh (2006) unless specified.

We obtain new lower and upper bounds for probabilities of unions of events.These bounds are sharp. They are stronger than earlier ones. General bounds maybe applied in arbitrary measurable spaces.We have improved the method that has been…

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme…

New results on particle correlations and event-by-event fluctuations presented at Quark Matter 2004 are reviewed.

In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…

In public discussions of the quality of forecasts, attention typically focuses on the predictive performance in cases of extreme events. However, the restriction of conventional forecast evaluation methods to subsets of extreme observations…

We evaluate the possibility of observable effects arising from collisions between vacuum bubbles in a universe undergoing false-vacuum eternal inflation. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that under certain assumptions most positions…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

A solution is given to a conjecture proposed by Y. Wigderson and A. Wigderson concerning a "Heisenberg-like" uncertainty principle. This is an old article already published in 2022.

The Hawking effect and the Unruh effect are two of the most important predictions in the theoretical physics of the last quarter of the 20th century. In parallel to the theoretical investigations there is great interest in the possibility…

The aim of this short note is to give counterexamples to two results by D. Y. Gao [5, Th. 16], [4, Th. 2] and to improve a related result by S.-C. Fang, D. Y. Gao, R.-L. Sheu and S.-Y. Wu [1, Th. 3].

This paper describes a continuation of the program of causal views, in which the world consists of nothing but a vast number of partial views of its past. Each view is associated to an event, and is a representation of the immediate causal…