相关论文: Time Series Forecasting: A Nonlinear Dynamics Appr…

Functional time series whose sample elements are recorded sequentially over time are frequently encountered with increasing technology. Recent studies have shown that analyzing and forecasting of functional time series can be performed…

Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind,…

Previous studies have shown that human movement is predictable to a certain extent at different geographic scales. Existing prediction techniques exploit only the past history of the person taken into consideration as input of the…

In the nonlinear prediction of scalar time series, the common practice is to reconstruct the state space using time-delay embedding and apply a local model on neighborhoods of the reconstructed space. The method of false nearest neighbors…

In the transformative landscape of smart cities, the integration of the cutting-edge web technologies into time series forecasting presents a pivotal opportunity to enhance urban planning, sustainability, and economic growth. The…

An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands…

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…

We present a data-driven approach to efficiently approximate nonlinear transient dynamics in solid-state systems. Our proposed machine-learning model combines a dimensionality reduction stage with a nonlinear vector autoregression scheme.…

Accurate time-series forecasting is crucial in various scientific and industrial domains, yet deep learning models often struggle to capture long-term dependencies and adapt to data distribution shifts over time. We introduce Future-Guided…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions…

Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…

We present in this work the development of a solar data assimilation method based on an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model and magnetic surface data, our mid-term goal is to predict the solar quasi cyclic activity. Here we focus on the…

Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in…

In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…

Reliable forecasts of the power output from variable renewable energy generators like solar photovoltaic systems are important to balancing load on real-time electricity markets and ensuring electricity supply reliability. However, solar PV…

The solar magnetic activity cycle has an amplitude that varies within a wide but limited range of values. This implies that there are nonlinear mechanisms that prevent runaway solutions. The purpose of this paper is to propose observable…

This paper reports on the application to field measurements of time series methods developed on the basis of the theory of deterministic chaos. The major difficulties are pointed out that arise when the data cannot be assumed to be purely…