相关论文: The Laplace-Jaynes approach to induction

An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…

This article presents new methodology for sample-based Bayesian inference when data are partitioned and communication between the parts is expensive, as arises by necessity in the context of "big data" or by choice in order to take…

These lecture notes aim at a post-Bachelor audience with a background at an introductory level in Applied Mathematics and Applied Statistics. They discuss the logic and methodology of the Bayes-Laplace approach to inductive statistical…

In this work, we develop a formal system of inductive logic. It uses an infinitary language that allows for countable conjunctions and disjunctions. It is based on a set of nine syntactic rules of inductive inference, and contains classical…

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

Bayesian inference is limited in scope because it cannot be applied in idealized contexts where none of the hypotheses under consideration is true and because it is committed to always using the likelihood as a measure of evidential…

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

The form and justification of inductive inference rules depend strongly on the representation of uncertainty. This paper examines one generic representation, namely, incomplete information. The notion can be formalized by presuming that the…

Many statistical models have likelihoods which are intractable: it is impossible or too expensive to compute the likelihood exactly. In such settings, a common approach is to replace the likelihood with an approximation, and proceed with…

We introduce relationalism and discuss how it is useful for interpreting probability theory and quantum mechanics. This paper is written in relatively lay terms and presumes no prior knowledge of quantum theory.

In this simple article, with possible applications in theoretical and applied physics, we suggest an original way to derive the expression of Shannon's entropy from a purely variational approach,using constraints. Based on the work of Edwin…

After Bayes, the oldest Bayesian account of enumerative induction is given by Laplace's so-called rule of succession: if all $n$ observed instances of a phenomenon to date exhibit a given character, the probability that the next instance of…

Consider a predictor who ranks eventualities on the basis of past cases: for instance a search engine ranking webpages given past searches. Resampling past cases leads to different rankings and the extraction of deeper information. Yet a…

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

Aim of the paper is to study non-local dynamic boundary conditions of reactive-diffusive type for the Laplace equation from analytic and probabilistic point of view. In particular, we provide compact and probabilistic representation of the…

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

We present a method derived from Laplace transform theory that enables the evaluation of fractional integrals. This method is adapted and extended in a variety of ways to demonstrate its utility in deriving alternative representations for…

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…