相关论文: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…
We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We now consider in more detail how to represent the lysis (death)…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
We present a new method for creating a model consensus to improve real-time hurricane track prediction. The method is based on the statistical fitting of historic numerical model track forecasts to the observed storm positions and learning…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
We develop and analyze a random field model for the reconstruction of turbulent velocity fluctuations from inhomogeneous characteristic flow quantities provided by RANS simulations that is accessible to both a rigorous analytical validation…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…
We study the statistics of the horizontal component of atmospheric boundary layer wind speed. Motivated by its non-stationarity, we investigate which parameters remain constant or can be regarded as being piece-wise constant and explain how…
An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…