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The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…

地球物理 · 物理学 2015-06-26 Agnes Helmstetter , Didier Sornette

Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before…

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Takahiro Mori , Hikaru Kawamura

A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all…

统计力学 · 物理学 2016-08-31 Marco Baiesi

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Alvaro Corral

Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…

凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Alvaro Corral

The statistical property of the calm times, i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes with arbitrary values of magnitude, is studied by analyzing the seismic time series data in California and Japan. It is found that the calm…

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-03-28 A. Mathey , J. Crassous , D. Marsan , J. Weiss , A. Amon

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…

地球物理 · 物理学 2009-11-13 G. Molchan , V. Keilis-Borok

Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…

Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-11-07 Leila Mizrahi , Dario Jozinović

The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…

地球物理 · 物理学 2026-05-19 Dye SK Sato , Keisuke Yoshida

By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present…

地球物理 · 物理学 2009-11-13 M. J. Werner , D. Sornette

The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…

地球物理 · 物理学 2022-07-25 A. V. Guglielmi , O. D. Zotov

The statistical properties of time intervals between significant earthquakes are found to be described by the Zipf-Mandelbrot-Tsallis-type distribution.

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

Spatial distances between subsequent earthquakes in southern California exhibit scale-free statistics, with a critical exponent $\delta \approx 0.6$, as well as finite size scaling. The statistics are independent of the threshold magnitude…

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Jörn Davidsen , Maya Paczuski

We have imagined a numerical experiment to explore the onset of turbulent intermittency associated with a spatial perturbation of the correlation length. We place two isotropic regions, with different integral scales, inside a volume where…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2012-11-29 Daniela Tordella , Michele Iovieno

We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…

chao-dyn · 物理学 2008-02-03 G. Zoeller , R. Engbert , S. Hainzl , J. Kurths

Event correlation between aftershocks in the coherent noise model is studied by making use of natural time, which has recently been introduced in complex time-series analysis. It is found that the aging phenomenon and the associated scaling…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Ugur Tirnakli , Sumiyoshi Abe

In many complex systems a continuous input of energy over time can be suddenly relaxed in the form of avalanches. Conventional avalanche models disregard the possibility of internal dynamical effects in the inter-avalanche periods, and thus…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-07-02 E. A. Jagla , François P. Landes , Alberto Rosso