相关论文: Extending Granger causality to nonlinear systems

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

Kernel-based methods are used in the context of Granger Causality to enable the identification of nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables. In this paper, we show that two state of the art kernel-based Granger Causality…

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer…

Inferring linear dependence between time series is central to our understanding of natural and artificial systems. Unfortunately, the hypothesis tests that are used to determine statistically significant directed or multivariate…

Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…

We make the case for incorporating a notion of time into causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We demonstrate that nontemporal causal DAGs are ambiguous and obstruct justification of the acyclicity assumption. Assuming that causes precede…

A novel approach is developed for discovering directed connectivity between specified pairs of nodes in a high-dimensional network (HDN) of brain signals. To accurately identify causal connectivity for such specified objectives, it is…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Can the direction of time and the causal structure of space-time be inferred from operational principles? Causal models and tensor networks offer complementary perspectives: the former encodes cause-effect relations via directed graphs,…

We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…

Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the…

{We consider the problem of estimating causal influences between observed processes from time series possibly corrupted by errors in the time variable (dating errors) which are typical in palaeoclimatology, planetary science and…

Understanding the causal interaction of time series variables can contribute to time series data analysis for many real-world applications, such as climate forecasting and extreme weather alerts. However, causal relationships are difficult…

We investigate the problem of inferring the causal predictors of a response $Y$ from a set of $d$ explanatory variables $(X^1,\dots,X^d)$. Classical ordinary least squares regression includes all predictors that reduce the variance of $Y$.…

The problem of estimating high-dimensional network models arises naturally in the analysis of many physical, biological and socio-economic systems. Examples include stock price fluctuations in financial markets and gene regulatory networks…

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Granger causality analysis, as one of the most popular time series causality methods, has been widely used in the economics, neuroscience. However, unobserved confounders is a fundamental problem in the observational studies, which is still…