相关论文: On the Reliability of the Geomagnetic Quake as Sho…

Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…

A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a…

Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the…

Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this…

As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…

Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…

We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

This paper analyzes the survivability of a physical network against earthquakes and proposes spatial network design rules to make a network robust against earthquakes. The disaster area model used is fairly generic and bounded. The proposed…

We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…

Physical Wavelets observe the large earthquake genesis processes of several months in a regional seismic catalog, suggesting the predictability of location, fault movement and size, and rupture time with an accuracy of up to a day and up to…

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis…

The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…

The understanding of long-distance relations between seismic activities has for long been of interest to seismologists and geologists. In this paper we have used data from the world-wide earthquake catalog for the period between 1972 and…

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and…

It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…