相关论文: Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble stand…

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to…

To facilitate effective decision-making, precipitation datasets should include uncertainty estimates. Quantile regression with machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. Distributional regression offers distinct…

For many applications, an ensemble of base classifiers is an effective solution. The tuning of its parameters(number of classes, amount of data on which each classifier is to be trained on, etc.) requires G, the generalization error of a…

A new index for high-impact weather forecasting is introduced and assessed in comparison with the well-established extreme forecast index (EFI). Two other ensemble summary statistics are also included in this comparison study: the…

Ensemble approaches are commonly used techniques to improving a system by combining multiple model predictions. Additionally these schemes allow the uncertainty, as well as the source of the uncertainty, to be derived for the prediction.…

Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…

A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…

Modern neural networks do not always produce well-calibrated predictions, even when trained with a proper scoring function such as cross-entropy. In classification settings, simple methods such as isotonic regression or temperature scaling…

Neural network (NN) ensembles can reduce large prediction variance of NN and improve prediction accuracy. For highly nonlinear problems with insufficient data set, the prediction accuracy of NN models becomes unstable, resulting in a…

Diffusion models now generate high-quality, diverse samples, with an increasing focus on more powerful models. Although ensembling is a well-known way to improve supervised models, its application to unconditional score-based diffusion…

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…

Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…

Since the start of the operational use of ensemble prediction systems, ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting has become the most advanced approach in weather prediction. However, despite the persistent development of the last three…

Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small, resulting in underdispersive…

Ensemble forecasts and their combination are examined from the perspective of probability spaces. Manipulating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are reformulated as barycenters of…

The generalized equipartition theorem known as the conjugate variables theorem (Phys. Rev. E 86, 051136 [2012]), originally obtained in the context of statistical inference of continuous random variables, is extended in this work to the…

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate…

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts…