Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2007-05-23 v1
Abstract
The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.physics/0402027,
title = {Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty},
author = {Stephen Jewson and Maarten Ambaum and Christine Ziehmann},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0402027},
year = {2007}
}