The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2019-10-02 v1
Abstract
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1803.06940,
title = {The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years},
author = {Tim Palmer},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1803.06940},
year = {2019}
}
Comments
Submitted to Special Issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: 25 years of ensemble prediction