We present a new framework for the assessment and calibration of medium range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximising the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertainty.
@article{arxiv.physics/0308057,
title = {A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts},
author = {Stephen Jewson and Anders Brix and Christine Ziehmann},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0308057},
year = {2009}
}