相关论文: A Local Ensemble Kalman Filter for Atmospheric Dat…

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA…

Data assimilation (DA) plays a pivotal role in diverse applications, ranging from climate predictions and weather forecasts to trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. A prime example is the widely used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF),…

Accurate data assimilation (DA) for systems with piecewise-smooth or discontinuous state variables remains a significant challenge, as conventional covariance-based ensemble Kalman filter approaches often fail to effectively balance…

Ensemble Kalman methods are widely used for state estimation in the geophysical sciences. Their success stems from the fact that they take an underlying (possibly noisy) dynamical system as a black box to provide a systematic,…

The feasibility of global ocean state estimation by sequential data assimilation is demonstrated. The model componenet of the assimilator is the GROB version of the MPIMET ocean circulation model HOPE. Assimilation uses the Fokker-Planck…

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Working with a two-stage ice sheet model, we explore how statistical data assimilation methods can be used to improve predictions of glacier melt and relatedly, sea level rise. We find that the EnKF improves model runs initialized using…

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as…

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Prediction error and maximum likelihood methods are powerful tools for identifying linear dynamical systems and, in particular, enable the joint estimation of model parameters and the Kalman filter used for state estimation. A key…

The weather and climate domains are undergoing a significant transformation thanks to advances in AI-based foundation models such as FourCastNet, GraphCast, ClimaX and Pangu-Weather. While these models show considerable potential, they are…

Several variations of the Kalman filter algorithm, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are widely used in science and engineering applications. In this paper, we introduce two algorithms of…

Geoscientific applications of ensemble Kalman filters face several computational challenges arising from the high dimensionality of the forecast covariance matrix, particularly when this matrix incorporates localization. For square-root…

In this study, two classes of methods including statistical and variational data assimilation algorithms will be described. In statistical methods, the model state is updated sequentially based on the previous estimate. Variational methods,…

Particle filters contain the promise of fully nonlinear data assimilation. They have been applied in numerous science areas, but their application to the geosciences has been limited due to their inefficiency in high-dimensional systems in…

Practical data assimilation algorithms often contain hyper-parameters, which may arise due to, for instance, the use of certain auxiliary techniques like covariance inflation and localization in an ensemble Kalman filter, the…

This paper demonstrates the efficacy of data-driven localization mappings for assimilating satellite-like observations in a dynamical system of intermediate complexity. In particular, a sparse network of synthetic brightness temperature…

We present recent results on the existence of a continuous time limit for Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithms. In the setting of continuous signal and observation processes, we apply the original Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm proposed by…

Numerical solvers using adaptive meshes can focus computational power on important regions of a model domain capturing important or unresolved physics. The adaptation can be informed by the model state, external information, or made to…