相关论文: The Repeated Solicitation Model

A percolation model is presented, with computer simulations for illustrations, to show how the sales of a new product may penetrate the consumer market. We review the traditional approach in the marketing literature, which is based on…

We study a Bayesian persuasion game where a sender wants to persuade a receiver to take a binary action, such as purchasing a product. The sender is informed about the (real-valued) state of the world, such as the quality of the product,…

We propose a general stochastic framework for modelling repeated auctions in the Real Time Bidding (RTB) ecosystem using point processes. The flexibility of the framework allows a variety of auction scenarios including configuration of…

In this paper the generalization of the Poisson distribution is derived for the case when each consecutive event changes event rate. A simple formula for the probability of observing of a given number of events for the selected period of…

This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioural bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each…

We introduce the study of sequential information elicitation in strategic multi-agent systems. In an information elicitation setup a center attempts to compute the value of a function based on private information (a-k-a secrets) accessible…

A simple advertising strategy that can be used to help increase sales of a product is to mail out special offers to selected potential customers. Because there is a cost associated with sending each offer, the optimal mailing strategy…

We consider polling models in the sense of Takagi (MIT Press, 1986). In our case, the feature of the server is that it may be forced to wait idly for new messages at an empty queue instead of switching to the next station. We propose four…

In quantitative finance, it is often necessary to analyze the distribution of the sum of specific functions of observed values at discrete points of an underlying process. Examples include the probability density function, the hedging…

We study a sequential decision-making model where a set of items is repeatedly matched to the same set of agents over multiple rounds. The objective is to determine a sequence of matchings that either maximizes the utility of the least…

We study online learning for optimal allocation when the resource to be allocated is time. %Examples of possible applications include job scheduling for a computing server, a driver filling a day with rides, a landlord renting an estate,…

A special case of Myerson's classic result describes the revenue-optimal equilibrium when a seller offers a single item to a buyer. We study a repeated sales extension of this model: a seller offers to sell a single fresh copy of an item to…

It is important to collect credible training samples $(x,y)$ for building data-intensive learning systems (e.g., a deep learning system). Asking people to report complex distribution $p(x)$, though theoretically viable, is challenging in…

In continuous time, customers arrive at random. Each waits until one of $c$ servers is available; each thereafter departs at random. The distribution of maximum line length of idle customers was studied over 25 years ago. We revisit two…

In this paper we investigate a dynamic pricing model for constant demand elasticity where customers have a probability distribution on the number of items they order. This is a generalization from standard models which restrict customers to…

We develop a simple and generic method to analyze randomized rumor spreading processes in fully connected networks. In contrast to all previous works, which heavily exploit the precise definition of the process under investigation, we only…

An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to…

Combinatorial auctions where agents can bid on bundles of items are desirable because they allow the agents to express complementarity and substitutability between the items. However, expressing one's preferences can require bidding on all…

Aggregated data in real world recommender applications often feature fat-tailed distributions of the number of times individual items have been rated or favored. We propose a model to simulate such data. The model is mainly based on social…

We consider regression under the "extremely small $n$ large $p$" condition, where the number of samples $n$ is so small compared to the dimensionality $p$ that predictors cannot be estimated without prior knowledge. This setup occurs in…