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Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-05-20 Tim Salimans , Diederik P. Kingma , Max Welling

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-04-14 Boqian Zhang , Vinayak Rao

One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…

计算物理 · 物理学 2015-06-18 Youhan Fang , Jesus-Maria Sanz-Serna , Robert D. Skeel

In this paper, we propose an efficient pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach to draw samples from posterior shape distributions for image segmentation. The computation time of the proposed approach is independent…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2018-09-05 Ertunc Erdil , Sinan Yildirim , Tolga Tasdizen , Mujdat Cetin

We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-19 Scott A. Cameron , Hans C. Eggers , Steve Kroon

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-05 Alexander Terenin , Eric P. Xing

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a popular technique in Bayesian statistical modeling. They have long been used to obtain samples from posterior distributions, but recent research has focused on the scalability of these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-02-02 Nicholas A. Johnson , Frank O. Kuehnel , Ali Nasiri Amini

Multicanonical MCMC (Multicanonical Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Multicanonical Monte Carlo) is discussed as a method of rare event sampling. Starting from a review of the generic framework of importance sampling, multicanonical MCMC is…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-10-20 Yukito Iba , Nen Saito , Akimasa Kitajima

Equality-constrained models naturally arise in problems in which measurements are taken at different levels of resolution. The challenge in this setting is that the models usually induce a joint distribution which is intractable. Resorting…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-04-28 Shenggang Hu , Hongsheng Dai , Fanlin Meng , Louis Aslett , Murray Pollock , Gareth O. Roberts

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

概率论 · 数学 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-01-03 Jackson Gorham , Lester Mackey

Many problems in materials science and biology involve particles interacting with strong, short-ranged bonds, that can break and form on experimental timescales. Treating such bonds as constraints can significantly speed up sampling their…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-12-02 Miranda Holmes-Cerfon

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for efficiently sampling trajectories with fixed initial and final conditions in a system with discrete degrees of freedom. The method can be applied to any stochastic process with local interactions,…

统计力学 · 物理学 2012-03-30 Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak , Francesco Zamponi

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick