相关论文: Tracking Stopping Times Through Noisy Observations

We study the problem of detecting a random walk on a graph from a sequence of noisy measurements at every node. There are two hypotheses: either every observation is just meaningless zero-mean Gaussian noise, or at each time step exactly…

Single fault sequential change point problems have become important in modeling for various phenomena in large distributed systems, such as sensor networks. But such systems in many situations present multiple interacting faults. For…

The absence of an algorithm that effectively monitors deep learning models used in side-channel attacks increases the difficulty of evaluation. If the attack is unsuccessful, the question is if we are dealing with a resistant implementation…

Let X_t, 0<=t<=T be a one-dimensional stochastic process with independent and stationary increments. This paper considers the problem of stopping the process X_t "as close as possible" to its eventual supremum M_T:=sup{X_t: 0<=t<=T}, when…

In 1960s Shiryaev developed Bayesian theory of change detection in independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequences. In Shiryaev's classical setting the goal is to minimize an average detection delay under the constraint imposed…

We study the problem of estimating the source of a network cascade given a time series of noisy information about the spread. Initially, there is a single vertex affected by the cascade (the source) and the cascade spreads in discrete time…

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem in pointwise and minimax settings for general dependent data models. Two new classes of sequential detection procedures associated with the maximal "local" probability of a false alarm…

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…

We consider the optimal double stopping time problem defined for each stopping time $S$ by $v(S)=\esssup\{E[\psi(\tau_1, \tau_2) | \F_S], \tau_1, \tau_2 \geq S \}$. Following the optimal one stopping time problem, we study the existence of…

We consider the linearly transformed spiked model, where observations $Y_i$ are noisy linear transforms of unobserved signals of interest $X_i$: \begin{align*} Y_i = A_i X_i + \varepsilon_i, \end{align*} for $i=1,\ldots,n$. The transform…

In this paper, we investigate the problem of joint searching and tracking of multiple mobile targets by a group of mobile agents. The targets appear and disappear at random times inside a surveillance region and their positions are random…

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While…

A random sequence having two segments being the homogeneous Markov processes is registered. Each segment has his own transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and random. The transition probabilities of each…

We propose an optimal sequential methodology for obtaining confidence intervals for a binomial proportion $\theta$. Assuming that an i.i.d. random sequence of Benoulli($\theta$) trials is observed sequentially, we are interested in…

This paper re-examines the use of response time to infer problem complexity. It revisits a canonical Wald model of optimal stopping, taking signal-to-noise ratio as a measure of problem complexity. While choice quality is monotone in…

This work considers the problem of quickest detection of signals in a coupled system of N sensors, which receive continuous sequential observations from the environment. It is assumed that the signals, which are modeled a general Ito…

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

This paper considers a sequence of random variables generated according to a common distribution. The distribution might undergo periods of transient changes at an unknown set of time instants, referred to as change-points. The objective is…

In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under the filtration consistent nonlinear expectations. The reward is given by a set of random variables satisfying some appropriate assumptions rather than an RCLL process. We…