相关论文: On competing risk and degradation processes

We consider the problem of governing systemic risk in a banking system model. The banking system model consists in an initial value problem for a system of stochastic differential equations whose dependent variables are the log-monetary…

In this paper, we develop a family of bivariate beta distributions that encapsulate both positive and negative correlations, and which can be of general interest for Bayesian inference. We then invoke a use of these bivariate distributions…

Nowadays, the consequences of failure and downtime of distributed systems have become more and more severe. As an obvious solution, these systems incorporate protection mechanisms to tolerate faults that could cause systems failures and…

Explanations of the replication crisis often emphasize misconduct, questionable research practices, or incentive misalignment, implying that behavioral reform is sufficient. This paper argues that a substantial component is architectural:…

Binomial time series in which the logit of the probability of success is modelled as a linear function of observed regressors and a stationary latent Gaussian process are considered. Score tests are developed to first test for the existence…

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

In reliability and life testing when the exponentially distributed components are put in series, it is generally assumed that the lifetimes of the components are independently distributed, which leads to some errors if they are not actually…

Hazard ratios are prone to selection bias, compromising their use as causal estimands. On the other hand, the hazard difference has been shown to remain unaffected by the selection of frailty factors over time. Therefore, observed hazard…

In a system, there are identical replaceable components working for a given task and a failed component is replaced by a functioning one in the corresponding position, which characterizes a repairable system. Assuming that a replaced…

We introduce the concepts of dependence and independence in a very general framework. We use a concept of rank to study dependence and independence. By means of the rank we identify (total) dependence with inability to create more…

One of the commonly used approaches to capture dependence in multivariate survival data is through the frailty variables. The identifiability issues should be carefully investigated while modeling multivariate survival with or without…

Robustness is often regarded as a critical future challenge for real-world applications, where stability is essential. However, as models often learn tasks in a similar order, we hypothesize that easier tasks will be easier regardless of…

We introduce the hybrid risk process, constructed via a time-change transformation applied to the solution of a hybrid stochastic differential equation. The framework covers several modern ruin settings, incorporating features like…

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in…

Interconnected agents such as firms in a supply chain make simultaneous preparatory investments to increase chances of honouring their respective bilateral agreements. Failures cascade: if one fails their agreement, then so do all who…

The presence of latent variables can greatly complicate inferences about causal relations between measured variables from statistical data. In many cases, the presence of latent variables makes it impossible to determine for two measured…

Survival probability within a certain time horizon T is a common measure of population viability. The choice of T implicitly involves a time preference, similar to economic discounting: Conservation success is evaluated at the time horizon…

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

The use of deep neural networks to make high risk decisions creates a need for global and local explanations so that users and experts have confidence in the modeling algorithms. We introduce a novel technique to find global and local…

This paper deals with a new measure of the influence of each feature on the response variable in classification problems, accounting for potential dependencies among certain feature subsets. Within this framework, we consider a sample of…