相关论文: Sequential importance sampling for multiway tables

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Sequential modelling entails making sense of sequential data, which naturally occurs in a wide array of domains. One example is systems that interact with users, log user actions and behaviour, and make recommendations of items of potential…

Temporal point processes are powerful generative models for event sequences that capture complex dependencies in time-series data. They are commonly specified using autoregressive models that learn the distribution of the next event from…

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…

We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query,…

We consider the task of performing probabilistic inference with probabilistic logical models. Many algorithms for approximate inference with such models are based on sampling. From a logic programming perspective, sampling boils down to…

Statistical inference of evolutionary parameters from molecular sequence data relies on coalescent models to account for the shared genealogical ancestry of the samples. However, inferential algorithms do not scale to available data sets. A…

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

A binary contingency table is an m x n array of binary entries with prescribed row sums r=(r_1,...,r_m) and column sums c=(c_1,...,c_n). The configuration model for uniformly sampling binary contingency tables proceeds as follows. First,…

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

This study introduces a novel model that effectively captures asymmetric structures in multivariate contingency tables with ordinal categories. Leveraging the principle of maximum entropy, our approach employs f-divergence to provide a…

We construct examples of contingency tables on $n$ binary random variables where the gap between the linear programming lower/upper bound and the true integer lower/upper bounds on cell entries is exponentially large. These examples provide…

The use of random sampling in decision-making and control has become popular with the ease of access to graphic processing units that can generate and calculate multiple random trajectories for real-time robotic applications. In contrast to…

The ability to cheaply train text classifiers is critical to their use in information retrieval, content analysis, natural language processing, and other tasks involving data which is partly or fully textual. An algorithm for sequential…

We consider the problem of selecting important nodes in a random network, where the nodes connect to each other randomly with certain transition probabilities. The node importance is characterized by the stationary probabilities of the…

Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single…

As a specific proportional hazard rates model, sequential order statistics can be used to describe the lifetimes of load-sharing systems. Inference for these systems needs to account for small sample sizes, which are prevalent in…