相关论文: Expertises : proc\'{e}dures statistiques d'aide \`…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

This study investigates Bayesian ensemble learning for improving the quality of decision-making. We consider a decision-maker who selects an action from a set of candidates based on a policy trained using observations. In our setting, we…

Statistical machine learning theory often tries to give generalization guarantees of machine learning models. Those models naturally underlie some fluctuation, as they are based on a data sample. If we were unlucky, and gathered a sample…

Experts advising decision-makers are likely to display expertise which varies as a function of the problem instance. In practice, this may lead to sub-optimal or discriminatory decisions against minority cases. In this work we model such…

The exact expression is derived for the expected value, $< {p_i}> $, for the parameter for any bin $i$ of a histogram following a multinomial distribution derived by sorting $N$ observations into bins of $B$ classes, if $n_i$ of the…

Hypothesis testing in high dimensional data is a notoriously difficult problem without direct access to competing models' likelihood functions. This paper argues that statistical divergences can be used to quantify the difference between…

Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which…

Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…

Epidemiologists increasingly use causal inference methods that rely on machine learning, as these approaches can relax unnecessary model specification assumptions. While deriving and studying asymptotic properties of such estimators is a…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson…

Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an…

We consider the problem of statistical inference for a class of partially-observed diffusion processes, with discretely-observed data and finite-dimensional parameters. We construct unbiased estimators of the score function, i.e. the…

A new characterization of the exponential distribution is obtained. It is based on an equation involving randomly shifted (translated) order statistics. No specific distribution is assumed for the shift random variables. The proof uses a…

Decisions about health interventions are often made using limited evidence. Mathematical models used to inform such decisions often include uncertainty analysis to account for the effect of uncertainty in the current evidence base on…

We consider a setting where in a known future time, a certain continuous random variable will be realized. There is a public prediction that gradually converges to its realized value, and an expert that has access to a more accurate…

We argue here about the relevance and the ultimate unity of the Bayesian approach in a neutral and agnostic manner. Our main theme is that Bayesian data analysis is an effective tool for handling complex models, as proven by the increasing…

In decision theory an act is a function from a set of conditions to the set of real numbers. The set of conditions is a partition in some algebra of events. The expected value of an act can be calculated when a probability measure is given.…