相关论文: Expertises : proc\'{e}dures statistiques d'aide \`…

The p-values are often implicitly used as a measure of evidence for the hypotheses of the tests. This practice has been analyzed with different approaches. It is generally accepted for the one-sided hypothesis problem, but it is often…

In this work we study the problem of inferring a discrete probability distribution using both expert knowledge and empirical data. This is an important issue for many applications where the scarcity of data prevents a purely empirical…

Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

The survey is concerned with the issue of information transmission from experts to non-experts. Two main approaches to the use of experts can be traced. According to the game-theoretic approach expertise is a case of asymmetric information…

The analysis of decision making under uncertainty is closely related to the analysis of probabilistic inference. Indeed, much of the research into efficient methods for probabilistic inference in expert systems has been motivated by the…

We present a new method for probabilistic elicitation of expert knowledge using binary responses of human experts assessing simulated data from a statistical model, where the parameters are subject to uncertainty. The binary responses…

We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus…

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

This paper studies hypothesis testing and parameter estimation in the context of the divide and conquer algorithm. In a unified likelihood based framework, we propose new test statistics and point estimators obtained by aggregating various…

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

This paper presents a decision-theoretic approach to statistical inference that satisfies the likelihood principle (LP) without using prior information. Unlike the Bayesian approach, which also satisfies LP, we do not assume knowledge of…

After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Statistical analysis is an important tool to distinguish systematic from chance findings. Current statistical analyses rely on distributional assumptions reflecting the structure of some underlying model, which if not met lead to problems…

This essay looks at decision-making with interval-valued probability measures. Existing decision methods have either supplemented expected utility methods with additional criteria of optimality, or have attempted to supplement the…

Statistical hypotheses are translations of scientific hypotheses into statements about one or more distributions, often concerning their centre. Tests that assess statistical hypotheses of centre implicitly assume a specific centre, e.g.,…