相关论文: A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided…

The geometric formulation of fiducial probability employed in this paper is an improvement over the usual pivotal quantity formulation. For a single parameter and single observation, the new formulation is based on the geometric properties…

We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

The concept of fiducial inference was introduced by R. A. Fisher in the 1930s to address the perceived limitations of Bayesian inference, particularly the need for subjective prior distributions in cases with limited prior information.…

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in…

A new computation method of frequentist $p$-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities based on the bootstrap probability is discussed for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is…

Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined -models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], log-linear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are:…

Due to their accuracies, methods based on ensembles of regression trees are a popular approach for making predictions. Some common examples include Bayesian additive regression trees, boosting and random forests. This paper focuses on…

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

Divide-and-conquer methods use large-sample approximations to provide frequentist guarantees when each block of data is both small enough to facilitate efficient computation and large enough to support approximately valid inferences. When…

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal…

Building on the recent development of the model-free generalized fiducial (MFGF) paradigm (Williams, 2023) for predictive inference with finite-sample frequentist validity guarantees, in this paper, we develop an MFGF-based approach to…

Belief functions are a powerful and popular framework for the mathematical characterisation of uncertainty, in particular in situations in which lack of data renders learning a probability distribution for the problem impractical. The first…