相关论文: Nonparametric estimation of mean-squared predictio…

We consider benchmarked empirical Bayes (EB) estimators under the basic area-level model of Fay and Herriot while requiring the standard benchmarking constraint. In this paper we determine the excess mean squared error (MSE) from…

In this paper we have proposed a general class of modified regression type estimator in systematic sampling under non-response to estimate the population mean using auxiliary information. The expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE)…

In this article, basing on NQD samples, we investigate the fixed design nonparametric regression model, where the errors are pairwise NQD random errors, with fixed design points, and an unknown function. Nonparametric weighted estimator…

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

We propose to address the common problem of linear estimation in linear statistical models by using a model selection approach via penalization. Depending then on the framework in which the linear statistical model is considered namely the…

For the general parametric regression models with covariates contaminated with normal measurement errors, this paper proposes an accelerated version of the classical simulation extrapolation algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters in…

In various statistical settings, the goal is to estimate a function which is restricted by the statistical model only through a conditional moment restriction. Prominent examples include the nonparametric instrumental variable framework for…

Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…

Several new methods have been proposed for performing valid inference after model selection. An older method is sampling splitting: use part of the data for model selection and part for inference. In this paper we revisit sample splitting…

We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…

We consider the problem of sequentially learning to estimate, in the mean squared error (MSE) sense, a Gaussian $K$-vector of unknown covariance by observing only $m < K$ of its entries in each round. We propose two MSE estimators, and…

In modern statistics, interests shift from pursuing the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator to reducing mean squared error (MSE) or residual squared error. Shrinkage based estimation and regression methods offer better prediction…

In empirical studies with time-to-event outcomes, investigators often leverage observational data to conduct causal inference on the effect of exposure when randomized controlled trial data is unavailable. Model misspecification and lack of…

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

In this article, we consider computing expectations w.r.t. probability measures which are subject to discretization error. Examples include partially observed diffusion processes or inverse problems, where one may have to discretize time…

Standard approaches to constructing nonparametric confidence bands for functions are frustrated by the impact of bias, which generally is not estimated consistently when using the bootstrap and conventionally smoothed function estimators.…

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

Linear regression with normally distributed errors - including particular cases such as ANOVA, Student's t-test or location-scale inference - is a widely used statistical procedure. In this case the ordinary least squares estimator…

In assessing prediction accuracy of multivariable prediction models, optimism corrections are essential for preventing biased results. However, in most published papers of clinical prediction models, the point estimates of the prediction…

In the last two decades, several methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have been proposed for Bayesian identification of stochastic non-linear state-space models (SSMs). It is well known that the…