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In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-03 Chaitanya Joshi , Fabrizio Ruggeri

Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2016-11-04 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman , Eric Krotkov

This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-11-28 Giles Hooker , Anand Vidyashankar

We introduce a methodology for robust Bayesian estimation with robust divergence (e.g., density power divergence or {\gamma}-divergence), indexed by a single tuning parameter. It is well known that the posterior density induced by robust…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-04 Shouto Yonekura , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We study the continuity properties of optimal solutions to stochastic control problems with respect to initial probability measures and applications of these to the robustness of optimal control policies applied to systems with incomplete…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2019-04-16 Ali Devran Kara , Serdar Yüksel

This work is concerned with nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing in the context of nonlinear inverse problems with random observations. Bayesian posterior distributions based upon a Gaussian process prior distribution are proven to…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-11 Remo Kretschmann , Han Cheng Lie

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

This paper develops a quantitative framework to assess the robustness of Bayes-optimal decisions in finite decision problems under model uncertainty. We introduce two complementary stability notions for acts: the robustness radius,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Christoph Jansen , Georg Schollmeyer

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-06 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Nicola Paoletti , Andrea Patane , Matthew Wicker

We study stability properties of the expected utility function in Bayesian optimal experimental design. We provide a framework for this problem in a non-parametric setting and prove a convergence rate of the expected utility with respect to…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-11-07 Duc-Lam Duong , Tapio Helin , Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia

Recent developments in AI have made it ubiquitous, every industry is trying to adopt some form of intelligent processing of their data. Despite so many advances in the field, AIs full capability is yet to be exploited by the industry.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-10 Vishal Rajput

The posterior variance of Gaussian processes is a valuable measure of the learning error which is exploited in various applications such as safe reinforcement learning and control design. However, suitable analysis of the posterior variance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-05 Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Now that Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become widely used, an appreciation is developing of just how critical an awareness of the sensitivity and robustness of certain target variables are to changes in the model. When time resources are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-20 Sophia K. Wright , Jim Q. Smith

The topic of robustness is experiencing a resurgence of interest in the statistical and machine learning communities. In particular, robust algorithms making use of the so-called median of means estimator were shown to satisfy strong…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-14 Stanislav Minsker , Shunan Yao

In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-24 Björn Sprungk

We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric models resulting from sieve priors. The aim of the paper is to provide general conditions to get posterior rates when the parameter space has a general structure,…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-05-03 Julyan Arbel , Ghislaine Gayraud , Judith Rousseau

This paper proves that robustness implies generalization via data-dependent generalization bounds. As a result, robustness and generalization are shown to be connected closely in a data-dependent manner. Our bounds improve previous bounds…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-04 Kenji Kawaguchi , Zhun Deng , Kyle Luh , Jiaoyang Huang

Robust regression has attracted a great amount of attention in the literature recently, particularly for taking asymmetricity into account simultaneously and for high-dimensional analysis. However, the majority of research on the topics…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-25 Sanna Soomro , Keming Yu , Yan Yu

Modern regression analyses are often undermined by covariate measurement error, misspecification of the regression model, and misspecification of the measurement error distribution. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-25 Mengqi Chen , Charita Dellaporta , Thomas B. Berrett , Theodoros Damoulas

In the Bayesian literature, a line of research called resolution of conflict is about the characterization of robustness against outliers of statistical models. The robustness characterization of a model is achieved by establishing the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-10 Philippe Gagnon