相关论文: Mean squared error of empirical predictor

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

In this article we provide some nonnegative and positive estimators of the mean squared errors(MSEs) for shrinkage estimators of multivariate normal means. Proposed estimators are shown to improve on the uniformly minimum variance unbiased…

We introduce a new small area predictor when the Fay-Herriot normal error model is fitted to a logarithmically transformed response variable, and the covariate is measured with error. This framework has been previously studied by Mosaferi…

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error…

We derive an extended empirical likelihood for parameters defined by estimating equations which generalizes the original empirical likelihood for such parameters to the full parameter space. Under mild conditions, the extended empirical…

Linear mixed-effects model (LMM) is a cornerstone of longitudinal data analysis, but is limited to adeptly make heterogeneous analyses predictable under both group-specific fixed effects and subject-specific random effects. To address this…

A moment bound for the normalized conditional-sum-of-squares (CSS) estimate of a general autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model with an arbitrary unknown memory parameter is derived in this paper. To achieve…

Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal…

We propose small area estimators of general indicators in off-census years, which avoid the use of deprecated census microdata, but are nearly optimal in census years. The procedure is based on replacing the obsolete census file with a…

A tacit assumption in linear regression is that (response, predictor)-pairs correspond to identical observational units. A series of recent works have studied scenarios in which this assumption is violated under terms such as ``Unlabeled…

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there…

An exact, closed form, and easy to compute expression for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of a kernel estimator of a normal mixture cumulative distribution function is derived for the class of arbitrary order Gaussian-based…

Research in NLP is often supported by experimental results, and improved reporting of such results can lead to better understanding and more reproducible science. In this paper we analyze three statistical estimators for expected validation…

We consider the problem of estimating a random state vector when there is information about the maximum distances between its subvectors. The estimation problem is posed in a Bayesian framework in which the minimum mean square error (MMSE)…

We adopt and expand McDonald's (2011) regression framework for measurement precision, integrating two key perspectives: (a) reliability of observed scores and (b) optimal prediction of latent scores. Reliability arises from a measurement…

Machine learning (ML) primarily evolved to solve "prediction problems." The first stage of two-stage least squares (2SLS) is a prediction problem, suggesting potential gains from ML first-stage assistance. However, little guidance exists on…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

A formal mean square error expansion (MSE) is derived for Euler--Maruyama numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDE). The error expansion is used to construct a pathwise a posteriori adaptive time stepping…

Traditional covariate selection methods for causal inference focus on achieving unbiasedness and asymptotic efficiency. In many practical scenarios, researchers must estimate causal effects from observational data with limited sample sizes…