相关论文: Tracking of Historical Volatility

In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

In this paper, a new numerical method based on adaptive gradient descent optimizers is provided for computing the implied volatility from the Black-Scholes (B-S) option pricing model. It is shown that the new method is more accurate than…

This paper explores a time-varying version of weak-form market efficiency that is a key component of the so-called Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). One of the most common methodologies used for modeling and estimating a degree of market…

We propose a variational method to solve all three estimation problems for nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems: prediction, filtering, and smoothing. Our new approach is based upon a proper choice of cost function, termed the {\it…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Data assimilation algorithms are used to estimate the states of a dynamical system using partial and noisy observations. The ensemble Kalman filter has become a popular data assimilation scheme due to its simplicity and robustness for a…

The multidimensional Uncertain Volatility Model leads to robust option pricing problems under joint volatility and correlation uncertainty. Their numerical resolution quickly becomes challenging because the associated stochastic control…

In this report, we propose a new adaptive time filter algorithm for the unsteady Stokes/Darcy model. First we present a first order ${\theta}$-scheme with the variable time step which is one parameter family of Linear Multi-step methods and…

We compare systematically several classes of stochastic volatility models of stock market fluctuations. We show that the long-time return distribution is either Gaussian or develops a power-law tail, while the short-time return distribution…

We derive a decomposition for the gradient of the innovation loss with respect to the filter gain in a linear time-invariant system, decomposing as a product of an observability Gramian and a term quantifying the ``non-orthogonality"…

Stochastic volatility models have existed in Option pricing theory ever since the crash of 1987 which violated the Black-Scholes model assumption of constant volatility. Heston model is one such stochastic volatility model that is widely…

We develop misspecification tests for building additive time-varying (ATV-)GARCH models. In the model, the volatility equation of the GARCH model is augmented by a deterministic time-varying intercept modeled as a linear combination of…

The well-known Kalman filters model dynamical systems by relying on state-space representations with the next state updated, and its uncertainty controlled, by fresh information associated with newly observed system outputs. This paper…

This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…

Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…

The measure timetable plays a critical role for the accuracy of the estimator. This article deals with the optimization of the schedule of measures for observing a random process in time using a Kalman filter, when the length of the process…

We consider a multidimensional Ito semimartingale regularly sampled on [0,t] at high frequency 1/\Delta_n, with \Delta_n going to zero. The goal of this paper is to provide an estimator for the integral over [0,t] of a given function of the…

Stochastic human motion prediction aims to generate diverse, plausible futures from observed sequences. Despite advances in generative modeling, existing methods often produce predictions corrupted by high-frequency jitter and temporal…