相关论文: Robust Estimators under the Imprecise Dirichlet Mo…

Many modern datasets are collected automatically and are thus easily contaminated by outliers. This led to a regain of interest in robust estimation, including new notions of robustness such as robustness to adversarial contamination of the…

Most of statistics and AI draw insights through modelling discord or variance between sources of information (i.e., inter-source uncertainty). Increasingly, however, research is focusing upon uncertainty arising at the level of individual…

The distributionally robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach asks for a distributionally robust policy that achieves the maximal expected total reward under the most adversarial distribution of uncertain parameters. In this paper, we…

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Multiple regression has been the go-to method for data analysis for generations of scholars due to its transparency, interpretability, and desirable theoretical properties. However, the method's simplicity precludes the discovery of complex…

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in real-world data, and the assumptions underlying classical linear regression models are often violated in practice. Inspired by the theory of sublinear expectation, we consider a linear regression model where the…

Reward models (RMs) are essential for aligning large language models (LLM) with human expectations. However, existing RMs struggle to capture the stochastic and uncertain nature of human preferences and fail to assess the reliability of…

Information theoretic quantities play an important role in various settings in machine learning, including causality testing, structure inference in graphical models, time-series problems, feature selection as well as in providing privacy…

In this paper we focus on the estimation of mutual information from finite samples $(\mathcal{X}\times\mathcal{Y})$. The main concern with estimations of mutual information is their robustness under the class of transformations for which it…

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Estimating the uncertainty in deep neural network predictions is crucial for many real-world applications. A common approach to model uncertainty is to choose a parametric distribution and fit the data to it using maximum likelihood…

Partial observability and uncertainty are common problems in sequential decision-making that particularly impede the use of formal models such as Markov decision processes (MDPs). However, in practice, agents may be able to employ costly…

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Data on rates, percentages or proportions arise frequently in many different applied disciplines like medical biology, health care, psychology and several others. In this paper, we develop a robust inference procedure for the beta…

Doubly robust estimators are widely used for estimating average treatment effects and other linear summaries of regression functions. While consistency requires only one of two nuisance functions to be estimated consistently, asymptotic…

The doubly-robust (DR) estimator is popular for evaluating causal effects in observational studies and is often perceived as more desirable than inverse probability weighting (IPW) or outcome modeling alone because it provides extra…

We propose a method for nonparametric density estimation that exhibits robustness to contamination of the training sample. This method achieves robustness by combining a traditional kernel density estimator (KDE) with ideas from classical…

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this…

This paper introduces a new class of robust estimates for ARMA models. They are M-estimates, but the residuals are computed so the effect of one outlier is limited to the period where it occurs. These estimates are closely related to those…

Consider semiparametric estimation where a doubly robust estimating function for a low-dimensional parameter is available, depending on two working models. With high-dimensional data, we develop regularized calibrated estimation as a…