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Estimating uncertainty in deep learning models is critical for reliable decision-making in high-stakes applications such as medical imaging. Prior research has established that the difference between an input sample and its reconstructed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-28 Xinran Xu , Li Rong Wang , Xiuyi Fan

Accurate estimation of Intrinsic Dimensionality (ID) is of crucial importance in many data mining and machine learning tasks, including dimensionality reduction, outlier detection, similarity search and subspace clustering. However, since…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-01-02 Anqi Liu , Brian D. Ziebart

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

The robust estimator presented in this paper processes each structure independently. The scales of the structures are estimated adaptively and no threshold is involved in spite of different objective functions. The user has to specify only…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2017-04-21 Xiang Yang , Peter Meer

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-17 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

Deep neural networks have shown great success in prediction quality while reliable and robust uncertainty estimation remains a challenge. Predictive uncertainty supplements model predictions and enables improved functionality of downstream…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-02 Johanna Rock , Tiago Azevedo , René de Jong , Daniel Ruiz-Muñoz , Partha Maji

Robust M-estimation uses loss functions, such as least absolute deviation (LAD), quantile loss and Huber's loss, to construct its objective function, in order to for example eschew the impact of outliers, whereas the difficulty in analysing…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-18 Chaohua Dong , Jiti Gao , Yundong Tu , Bin Peng

Among the different possible strategies for evaluating the reliability of individual predictions of classifiers, robustness quantification stands out as a method that evaluates how much uncertainty a classifier could cope with before…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-25 Rodrigo F. L. Lassance , Jasper De Bock

Many estimators of dynamic discrete choice models with persistent unobserved heterogeneity have desirable statistical properties but are computationally intensive. In this paper we propose a method to quicken estimation for a broad class of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-04-09 Jackson Bunting , Takuya Ura

In this work, we present a method which determines optimal multi-step dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) models via entropic regression, which is a nonlinear information flow detection algorithm. Motivated by the higher-order DMD (HODMD)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Christopher W. Curtis , Erik Bollt , Daniel Jay Alford-Lago

The Dynamic-Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a well established data-driven method of finding temporally evolving linear-mode decompositions of nonlinear time series. Traditionally, this method presumes that all relevant dimensions are sampled…

动力系统 · 数学 2021-01-13 Christopher W. Curtis , Daniel Jay Alford-Lago

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2025-10-02 Eslam Abdelaleem , K. Michael Martini , Ilya Nemenman

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-01 Giovanni Saraceno , Claudio Agostinelli , Luca Greco

The need for accurate SQL progress estimation in the context of decision support administration has led to a number of techniques proposed for this task. Unfortunately, no single one of these progress estimators behaves robustly across the…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2012-01-04 Arnd Christian König , Bolin Ding , Surajit Chaudhuri , Vivek Narasayya

With the emergence of precision medicine, estimating optimal individualized decision rules (IDRs) has attracted tremendous attention in many scientific areas. Most existing literature has focused on finding optimal IDRs that can maximize…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-28 Zhengling Qi , Jong-Shi Pang , Yufeng Liu

This study addresses a class of linear mixed-integer programming (MILP) problems that involve uncertainty in the objective function parameters. The parameters are assumed to form a random vector, whose probability distribution can only be…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-03-07 Sergey S. Ketkov

When applying a statistical method in practice it often occurs that some observations deviate from the usual assumptions. However, many classical methods are sensitive to outliers. The goal of robust statistics is to develop methods that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2008-08-06 Mia Hubert , Peter J. Rousseeuw , Stefan Van Aelst