相关论文: Decision-Theoretic Foundations for Causal Reasonin…

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation…

The correlations that can be observed between a set of variables depend on the causal structure underpinning them. Causal structures can be modeled using directed acyclic graphs, where nodes represent variables and edges denote functional…

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Our evolution as a species made a huge step forward when we understood the relationships between causes and effects. These associations may be trivial for some events, but they are not in complex scenarios. To rigorously prove that some…

Learning about cause and effect is arguably the main goal in applied econometrics. In practice, the validity of these causal inferences is contingent on a number of critical assumptions regarding the type of data that has been collected and…

Causality is a subject of philosophical debate and a central scientific issue with a long history. In the statistical domain, the study of cause and effect based on the notion of `fairness' in comparisons dates back several hundred years,…

We present a categorical construction for modelling causal structures within a general class of process theories that include the theory of classical probabilistic processes as well as quantum theory. Unlike prior constructions within…

Humans use causality and hypothetical retrospection in their daily decision-making, planning, and understanding of life events. The human mind, while retrospecting a given situation, think about questions such as "What was the cause of the…

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., "You ought to do A, if C") that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound…

Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in statistics, machine learning, signal processing, and control. When such a model is defined on a directed acyclic graph (DAG), one can assign a partial ordering to the events occurring…

This work presents a conceptual synthesis of causal discovery and inference frameworks, with a focus on how foundational assumptions -- causal sufficiency, causal faithfulness, and the causal Markov condition -- are formalized and…

This paper presents a sound and completecalculus for causal relevance, based onPearl's functional models semantics.The calculus consists of axioms and rulesof inference for reasoning about causalrelevance relationships.We extend the set of…

In this dissertation we develop a new formal graphical framework for causal reasoning. Starting with a review of monoidal categories and their associated graphical languages, we then revisit probability theory from a categorical perspective…

Bayesian networks can be used to extract explanations about the observed state of a subset of variables. In this paper, we explicate the desiderata of an explanation and confront them with the concept of explanation proposed by existing…

We propose a new approach to temporal inference, inspired by the Pearlian causal inference paradigm - though quite different from Pearl's approach formally. Rather than using directed acyclic graphs, we make use of factored sets, which are…

In recent years the search for a proper formal definition of actual causation -- i.e., the relation of cause-effect as it is instantiated in specific observations, rather than general causal relations -- has taken on impressive proportions.…

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be…