相关论文: Using Sets of Probability Measures to Represent Un…

A measure of complexity based on a probabilistic description of physical systems is proposed. This measure incorporates the main features of the intuitive notion of such a magnitude. It can be applied to many physical situations and to…

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…

Combining measurements which have "theoretical uncertainties" is a delicate matter, due to an unclear statistical basis. We present an algorithm based on the notion that a theoretical uncertainty represents an estimate of bias.

Adequate uncertainty representation and quantification have become imperative in various scientific disciplines, especially in machine learning and artificial intelligence. As an alternative to representing uncertainty via one single…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

The uncertainty associated with probing the quantum state is expressed as the effective abundance (measure) of possibilities for its collapse. New kinds of uncertainty limits entailed by quantum description of the physical system arise in…

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

In a real expert system, one may have unreliable, unconfident, conflicting estimates of the value for a particular parameter. It is important for decision making that the information present in this aggregate somehow find its way into use.…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

The paper presents a construction of a quantitative measure of variability for parameter estimates in the data fitting problem under interval uncertainty. It shows the degree of variability and ambiguity of the estimate, and the need for…

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

We define the likelihood and give a number of justifications for its use as a skill measure for probabilistic forecasts. We describe a number of different scores based on the likelihood, and briefly investigate the relationships between the…

In this paper, we present a formal quantification of epistemic uncertainty induced by numerical solutions of ordinary and partial differential equation models. Numerical solutions of differential equations contain inherent uncertainties due…

Probability metrics constitute an important tool in probability theory and statistics \cite{DKS91}, \cite{R91}, \cite{Z83} as they are specific metrics on spaces of random variables which, by satisfying an extra condition, concord well with…

In the subjective Bayesian approach uncertainty is described by a prior distribution chosen by the statistician. Fuzzy set theory is another way of representing uncertainty. Here we give a decision theoretic approach which allows a Bayesian…

We prove a central limit theorem for a sequence of random variables whose means are ambiguous and vary in an unstructured way. Their joint distribution is described by a set of measures. The limit is (not the normal distribution and is)…

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes…

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…