相关论文: Belief Calculus

Belief systems are often treated as globally consistent sets of propositions or as scalar-valued probability distributions. Such representations tend to obscure the internal structure of belief, conflate external credibility with internal…

One problem to solve in the context of information fusion, decision-making, and other artificial intelligence challenges is to compute justified beliefs based on evidence. In real-life examples, this evidence may be inconsistent,…

This paper describes recent work on an ongoing project in medical diagnosis at the University of Guelph. A domain on which experts are not very good at pinpointing a single disease outcome is explored. On-line medical data is available over…

We view the syntax-based approaches to default reasoning as a model-based diagnosis problem, where each source giving a piece of information is considered as a component. It is formalized in the ATMS framework (each source corresponds to an…

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has been widely used in various fields of applications, because of the flexibility and effectiveness in modeling uncertainties without prior information. However, the existing evidence theory is insufficient…

The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical probability laws. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief…

Approaches to decision-making under uncertainty in the belief function framework are reviewed. Most methods are shown to blend criteria for decision under ignorance with the maximum expected utility principle of Bayesian decision theory. A…

In [12], Nilsson proposed the probabilistic logic in which the truth values of logical propositions are probability values between 0 and 1. It is applicable to any logical system for which the consistency of a finite set of propositions can…

This paper examines the relationship between Shafer's belief functions and convex sets of probability distributions. Kyburg's (1986) result showed that belief function models form a subset of the class of closed convex probability…

Probability theory, epistemically interpreted, provides an excellent, if not the best available account of inductive reasoning. This is so because there are general and definite rules for the change of subjective probabilities through…

Stemming from de Finetti's work on finitely additive coherent probabilities, the paradigm of coherence has been applied to many uncertainty calculi in order to remove structural restrictions on the domain of the assessment. Three possible…

The computational complexity of reasoning within the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is one of the main points of criticism this formalism has to face. To overcome this difficulty various approximation algorithms have been suggested that…

Decision making is still an open issue in the application of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. A lot of works have been presented for it. In the transferable belief model (TBM), pignistic probabilities based on the basic probability as-…

A key feature of human theory-of-mind is the ability to attribute beliefs to other agents as mentalistic explanations for their behavior. But given the wide variety of beliefs that agents may hold about the world and the rich language we…

Conditioning is crucial in applied science when inference involving time series is involved. Belief calculus is an effective way of handling such inference in the presence of epistemic uncertainty -- unfortunately, different approaches to…

The combination of evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory is compared with the combination of evidence in probabilistic logic. Sufficient conditions are stated for these two methods to agree. It is then shown that these conditions are minimal…

In Bayesian statistics probability distributions express beliefs. However, for many problems the beliefs cannot be computed analytically and approximations of beliefs are needed. We seek a loss function that quantifies how "embarrassing" it…

This paper suggests a new interpretation of the Dempster-Shafer theory in terms of probabilistic interpretation of plausibility. A new rule of combination of independent evidence is shown and its preservation of interpretation is…

This paper relates comparative belief structures and a general view of belief management in the setting of deductively closed logical representations of accepted beliefs. We show that the range of compatibility between the classical…

Inappropriate use of Dempster's rule of combination has led some authors to reject the Dempster-Shafer model, arguing that it leads to supposedly unacceptable conclusions when defaults are involved. A most classic example is about the…