相关论文: Robust Inference of Trees

Using Machine Learning systems in the real world can often be problematic, with inexplicable black-box models, the assumed certainty of imperfect measurements, or providing a single classification instead of a probability distribution. This…

Assume we have potential "causes" $z\in Z$, which produce "events" $w$ with known probabilities $\beta(w|z)$. We observe $w_1,w_2,...,w_n$, what can we say about the distribution of the causes? A Bayesian estimate will assume a prior on…

Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, offering automated procedures for the prediction of a phenomenon based on past observations, unraveling underlying patterns in data and…

A major bottleneck of standard auto-regressive large language models is that their inference process is inherently sequential, resulting in very long and costly inference times. To circumvent this, practitioners proposed a class of language…

Decision trees are a popular family of models due to their attractive properties such as interpretability and ability to handle heterogeneous data. Concurrently, missing data is a prevalent occurrence that hinders performance of machine…

Most of the syntax-based metrics obtain the similarity by comparing the sub-structures extracted from the trees of hypothesis and reference. These sub-structures are defined by human and can't express all the information in the trees…

This paper studies a robust utility maximization problem for intractable claims under distributional ambiguity, where the distribution of the claim cannot be inferred from market information and its dependence with tradable assets is…

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

The most fundamental problem in statistics is the inference of an unknown probability distribution from a finite number of samples. For a specific observed data set, answers to the following questions would be desirable: (1) Estimation:…

We congratulate Lee, Nadler and Wasserman (henceforth LNW) on a very interesting paper on new methodology and supporting theory [arXiv:0707.0481]. Treelets seem to tackle two important problems of modern data analysis at once. For datasets…

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

We propose an approach for learning optimal tree-based prescription policies directly from data, combining methods for counterfactual estimation from the causal inference literature with recent advances in training globally-optimal decision…

Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is…

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…

The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials - distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is…

In the density estimation model, the question of adaptive inference using P\'olya tree-type prior distributions is considered. A class of prior densities having a tree structure, called spike-and-slab P\'olya trees, is introduced. For this…

Probabilistic dependency graphs (PDGs) are a flexible class of probabilistic graphical models, subsuming Bayesian Networks and Factor Graphs. They can also capture inconsistent beliefs, and provide a way of measuring the degree of this…

Methods based on Bayesian decision tree ensembles have proven valuable in constructing high-quality predictions, and are particularly attractive in certain settings because they encourage low-order interaction effects. Despite adapting to…