相关论文: Sequential Predictions based on Algorithmic Comple…
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is extremely close to Solomonoff's prior M, the latter being an excellent predictor in…
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor M from the true distribution m by the algorithmic complexity of m. Here we…
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result is that the…
We study the properties of the Minimum Description Length principle for sequence prediction, considering a two-part MDL estimator which is chosen from a countable class of models. This applies in particular to the important case of…
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here…
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result is that the…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
The framework of Solomonoff prediction assigns prior probability to hypotheses inversely proportional to their Kolmogorov complexity. There are two well-known problems. First, the Solomonoff prior is relative to a choice of Universal Turing…
Solomonoff's uncomputable universal prediction scheme $\xi$ allows to predict the next symbol $x_k$ of a sequence $x_1...x_{k-1}$ for any Turing computable, but otherwise unknown, probabilistic environment $\mu$. This scheme will be…
Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves…
To what extent can we forecast a time series without fitting to historical data? Can universal patterns of probability help in this task? Deep relations between pattern Kolmogorov complexity and pattern probability have recently been used…
Algorithmic information theory studies description complexity and randomness and is now a well known field of theoretical computer science and mathematical logic. There are several textbooks and monographs devoted to this theory where one…
Consider the following prediction problem. Assume that there is a block box that produces bits according to some unknown computable distribution on the binary tree. We know first $n$ bits $x_1 x_2 \ldots x_n$. We want to know the…
We study the properties of the MDL (or maximum penalized complexity) estimator for Regression and Classification, where the underlying model class is countable. We show in particular a finite bound on the Hellinger losses under the only…
We present an efficient algorithm that, given a discrete random variable $X$ and a number $m$, computes a random variable whose support is of size at most $m$ and whose Kolmogorov distance from $X$ is minimal, also for the one-sided…
We consider the Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence prediction. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is…
Reasoning under uncertainty is a key challenge in AI, especially for real-world tasks, where problems with sparse data demands systematic generalisation. Existing approaches struggle to balance accuracy and simplicity when evaluating…
The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion…
We consider a system of weak* closed sets of finite-dimensional distributions. We show that a corresponding system of random variables can be defined on a probability space with a probability measure determined up to some set of measures,…