相关论文: Statistical Inference, Occam's Razor and Statistic…

I define a natural measure of the complexity of a parametric distribution relative to a given true distribution called the {\it razor} of a model family. The Minimum Description Length principle (MDL) and Bayesian inference are shown to…

Statistical learning theory is often associated with the principle of Occam's razor, which recommends a simplicity preference in inductive inference. This paper distills the core argument for simplicity obtainable from statistical learning…

In real-life statistical data, it seems that conditional probabilities for the effect given their causes tend to be less complex and smoother than conditionals for causes, given their effects. We have recently proposed and tested methods…

How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how…

In this note we introduce linear regression with basis functions in order to apply Bayesian model selection. The goal is to incorporate Occam's razor as provided by Bayes analysis in order to automatically pick the model optimally able to…

This article applies the principle of Occam's Razor to non-parametric model building of statistical data, by finding a model with the minimal number of bits, leading to an exceptionally effective regularization method for probability…

Statistical Inference is the process of determining a probability distribution over the space of parameters of a model given a data set. As more data becomes available this probability distribution becomes updated via the application of…

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also…

Theories can be represented as statistical models for empirical testing. There is a vast literature on model selection and multimodel inference that focuses on how to assess which statistical model, and therefore which theory, best fits the…

Bayesian inference provides a uniquely rigorous approach to obtain principled justification for uncertainty in predictions, yet it is difficult to articulate suitably general prior belief in the machine learning context, where computational…

The algorithms available for retail forecasting have increased in complexity. Newer methods, such as machine learning, are inherently complex. The more traditional families of forecasting models, such as exponential smoothing and…

Interpretation of cosmological data to determine the number and values of parameters describing the universe must not rely solely on statistics but involve physical insight. When statistical techniques such as "model selection" or…

Statistical system models provide the basis for the examination of various sorts of distributions. Classification distributions are a very common and versatile form of statistics in e.g. real economic, social, and IT systems. The…

Prompted by misconceptions in the recent literature, we review the justifications for naturalness arguments and Occam's razor found in Bayesian statistics. We discuss the automatic Occam's razor that emerges in Bayesian formalism, bringing…

Double descent is a phenomenon of over-parameterized statistical models such as deep neural networks which have a re-descending property in their risk function. As the complexity of the model increases, risk exhibits a U-shaped region due…

Input-output maps are prevalent throughout science and technology. They are empirically observed to be biased towards simple outputs, but we don't understand why. To address this puzzle, we study the archetypal input-output map: a…

In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic…

Occam's Razor tells us to pick the simplest model that fits our observations. In order to make sense of his process mathematically, we interpret it in the context of posets of functions. Our approach leads to some unusual new combinatorial…