相关论文: Optimal Prediction of Time-to-Failure from Informa…

The article is focused on studying how to predict the failure times of coherent systems from the early failure times of their components. Both the cases of independent and dependent components are considered by assuming that they are…

A time-dependent global fiber-bundle model of fracture with continuous damage is formulated in terms of a set of coupled non-linear differential equations. A first integral of this set is analytically obtained. The time evolution of the…

We formulate the problem of probabilistic predictions of global failure in the simplest possible model based on site percolation and on one of the simplest model of time-dependent rupture, a hierarchical fiber bundle model. We show that…

Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by…

Probabilistic model-based diagnosis computes the posterior probabilities of failure of components from the prior probabilities of component failure and observations of system behavior. One problem with this method is that such priors are…

In a coherent reliability system composed of multiple components configured according to a specific structure function, the distribution of system time to failure, or system lifetime, is often of primary interest. Accurate estimation of…

In recent times we hear increasingly often about cyber attacks on various commercial and strategic sites that manage to escape any defense. In this article, we model such attacks on networks via stochastic processes and predict the time of…

Before autonomous systems can be deployed in safety-critical applications, we must be able to understand and verify the safety of these systems. For cases where the risk or cost of real-world testing is prohibitive, we propose a…

Prediction of breakdown in disordered solids under external loading in a question of paramount importance. Here we use a fiber bundle model for disordered solids and record the time series of the avalanche sizes and energy bursts. The time…

Applications from finance to epidemiology and cyber-security require accurate forecasts of dynamic phenomena, which are often only partially observed. We demonstrate that a system's predictability degrades as a function of temporal…

Accurately predicting when and how materials fail is critical to designing safe, reliable structures, mechanical systems, and engineered components that operate under stress. Yet, fracture behavior remains difficult to model across the…

In recent years, the requirement for real-time understanding of machine behavior has become an important objective in industrial sectors to reduce the cost of unscheduled downtime and to maximize production with expected quality. The vast…

We consider a simple system with a local synchronous generator and a load whose power consumption is a random process. The most probable scenario of system failure (synchronization loss) is considered, and it is argued that its knowledge is…

A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…

A subcritical load on a disordered material can induce creep damage. The creep rate in this case exhibits three temporal regimes viz. an initial decelerating regime followed by a steady-state regime and a stage of accelerating creep that…

The reliability of a system of components depends on reliability of each component. Thus, the initial statistical work should be the estimation of the reliability of each component of the system. This is not an easy task because when the…

Failure in brittle materials led by the evolution of micro- to macro-cracks under repetitive or increasing loads is often catastrophic with no significant plasticity to advert the onset of fracture. Early failure detection with respective…

We investigate the fracture of heterogeneous materials occurring under unloading from an initial load. Based on a fiber bundle model of time dependent fracture, we show that depending on the unloading rate the system has two phases: for…

Understanding material failure is critical for designing stronger and lighter structures by identifying weaknesses that could be mitigated. Existing full-physics numerical simulation techniques involve trade-offs between speed, accuracy,…

Failure times of a machinery cannot always be assumed independent and identically distributed, e.g. if after reparations the machinery is not restored to a same-as-new condition. Framed within the renewal processes approach, a…