相关论文: International evidence on business cycle magnitude…

Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best,…

The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…

Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…

We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary…

I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…

With negative growth in real production in many countries and debt levels which become an increasing burden on developed societies, the calls for a change in economic policy and even the monetary system become louder and increasingly…

Empirical business cycle studies using cross-country data usually cannot achieve causal relationships while within-country studies mostly focus on the bust period. We provide the first causal investigation into the boom period of the…

We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…

Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of…

In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…

I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…

All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these…

We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a…

This study analyses the duration dependence of events that trigger volatility persistence in stock markets. Such events, in our context, are monthly spells of contiguous price decline or negative returns for the S&P500 stock market index…

Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…

This paper examines the dynamic interaction between falling and rising markets for both the real and the financial sectors of the largest economy in the world using asymmetric causality tests. These tests require that each underlying…

Two decades of studies have found significant regional differences in the timing of transitions in national business cycles and their durations. Earlier studies partly detect regional synchronization during business cycle expansions and…

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…