相关论文: Predicting Multivariate Volatility

Although multivariate stochastic volatility models usually produce more accurate forecasts compared to the MGARCH models, their estimation techniques such as Bayesian MCMC typically suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a fast…

General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

Scattering of electromagnetic waves in billiard-like systems has become a standard experimental tool of studying properties associated with Quantum Chaos. Random Matrix Theory (RMT) describing statistics of eigenfrequencies and associated…

We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor…

We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…

Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…

As the dynamic structure of the financial markets is subject to dramatic changes, a model capable of providing consistently accurate volatility estimates must not make strong assumptions on how prices change over time. Most volatility…

We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating…

By capturing outliers, volatility clustering, and tail dependence in the asset return distribution, we build a sophisticated model to predict the downside risk of the global financial market. We further develop a dynamic regime switching…

Volatility forecasting plays an important role in the financial econometrics. Previous works in this regime are mainly based on applying various GARCH-type models. However, it is hard for people to choose a specific GARCH model which works…

Modeling and managing portfolio risk is perhaps the most important step to achieve growing and preserving investment performance. Within the modern portfolio construction framework that built on Markowitz's theory, the covariance matrix of…

Using random matrix technique we determine an exact relation between the eigenvalue spectrum of the covariance matrix and of its estimator. This relation can be used in practice to compute eigenvalue invariants of the covariance…

A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…

We apply random matrix theory to derive spectral density of large sample covariance matrices generated by multivariate VMA(q), VAR(q) and VARMA(q1,q2) processes. In particular, we consider a limit where the number of random variables N and…

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…

Volatility-based trading strategies have attracted a lot of attention in financial markets due to their ability to capture opportunities for profit from market dynamics. In this article, we propose a new volatility-based trading strategy…

We suggest the Doubly Multiplicative Error class of models (DMEM) for modeling and forecasting realized volatility, which combines two components accommodating low-, respectively, high-frequency features in the data. We derive the…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on Factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices…