相关论文: Comment on "Are financial crashes predictable?"

This is a reply to Johansen's comment on `Are Financial Crashes Predictable?', by L. Laloux, M. Potters, R. Cont, J.P. Aguilar, J.P. Bouchaud, Europhys. Lett. 45, p. 1 (1999).

We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not…

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author…

Comment on the paper "Novel Convective Instabilities in a Magnetic Fluid" by W. Luo, T. Du, and J. Huang, Phys. Rev. Lett., v.82, p.4134 (1999).

A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is…

Reply to Comment on "Torus Instability" by J. Chen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 099501 (2007). Refers to "Torus Instability" by Kliem and Toeroek, Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 255002 (2006).

We respond to Sornette and Johansen's criticisms of our findings regarding log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Included in this paper are discussions of the Sornette-Johansen theoretical paradigm, traditional methods of…

Comment on R. Planet, S. Santucci, J. Ortin, Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 094502 (2009) about the rescaling of the data and the data collapse. Reply to be found here.

This is a comment on [G. Knight and R. Klages, Phys. Rev. E 84, 041135 (2011); also available at arXiv:1107.5293v2 [math-ph]].

Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes…

Letter/comment on M. Rini, Physics $\textbf{13}$, s94 (July 27, 2020) and A. Sanna et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. $\textbf{125}$, 057001 (2020).

This is a comment on "Universal Fluctuations in Correlated Systems", by Bramwell et al, Phys. Rev. Lett., 84, 3744 (2000.

This is a reply to a Comment on 'A test-tube model for rainfall', {\it Europhys. Lett.}, {\bf 106}, 40001, (2014).

Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall…

A comment to the paper by S. Chen, H. B\"uttner, and J. Voit, [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 87}, 087205 (2001)].

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…

This article is a response to the recent Worrying Trends in Econophysics critique written by four respected theoretical economists. Two of the four have written books and papers that provide very useful critical analyses of the shortcomings…

We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after…

Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical…

Reply to the Comment by L. Berthier and J.-P. Bouchaud, Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 059701 (2003), also cond-mat/0209165, on our paper Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 097201 (2002), also cond-mat/0203444