相关论文: Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups

It is a long-standing objective to ease the computation burden incurred by the decision making process. Identification of this mechanism's sensitivity to simplification has tremendous ramifications. Yet, algorithms for decision making under…

We investigate the problem of jointly testing a pair of composite hypotheses and, depending on the test result, estimating a random parameter under distributional uncertainties. Specifically, it is assumed that the distribution of the data…

We investigate how individuals form expectations about population behavior using statistical inference based on observations of their social relations. Misperceptions about others' connectedness and behavior arise from sampling bias…

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

Statistical uncertainty of different filtration techniques for market network analysis is studied. Two measures of statistical uncertainty are discussed. One is based on conditional risk for multiple decision statistical procedures and…

Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…

Complex decision-making systems rarely have direct access to the current state of the world and they instead rely on opinions to form an understanding of what the ground truth could be. Even in problems where experts provide opinions…

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…

Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly…

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for…

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

We study the problem of data integration from sources that contain probabilistic uncertain information. Data is modeled by possible-worlds with probability distribution, compactly represented in the probabilistic relation model. Integration…

Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can…

Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an underestimation of…

We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…

Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…

This paper studies learning in markets with aggregate uncertainty about whether trade is efficient. A long-lived seller offers prices to buyers, who are short-lived and arrive according to a Poisson process. A hidden state determines…

Matching a nonprobability sample to a probability sample is one strategy both for selecting the nonprobability units and for weighting them. This approach has been employed in the past to select subsamples of persons from a large panel of…

We consider a network of interacting agents and we model the process of choice on the adoption of a given innovative product by means of statistical-mechanics tools. The modelization allows us to focus on the effects of direct interactions…