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Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

数值分析 · 数学 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-05-13 Rémi Bardenet , Arnaud Doucet , Chris Holmes

Monte Carlo method is a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-09-28 Bochao Jia

We propose a hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) technique applicable to high-dimensional multivariate normal distributions that effectively samples along chaotic trajectories. The method is predicated on the freedom of choice of the HMC momentum…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2016-04-26 Nirag Kadakia

This paper concerns the approximation of smooth, high-dimensional functions from limited samples using polynomials. This task lies at the heart of many applications in computational science and engineering - notably, some of those arising…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-11-07 Ben Adcock , Simone Brugiapaglia

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are widely used but often encounter either slow convergence or biased sampling when applied to multimodal high dimensional distributions. In this paper, we present a general framework of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-09-12 Ricky Fok , Aijun An , Xiaogang Wang

A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-11-11 Christian Schäfer , Nicolas Chopin

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

We consider generalizations of the classical inverse problem to Bayesien type estimators, where the result is not one optimal parameter but an optimal probability distribution in parameter space. The practical computational tool to compute…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-05-03 Michael Herty , Christian Ringhofer

Optimizing a target function over the space of organic molecules is an important problem appearing in many fields of applied science, but also a very difficult one due to the vast number of possible molecular systems. We propose an…

Monte Carlo is a versatile and frequently used tool in statistical physics and beyond. Correspondingly, the number of algorithms and variants reported in the literature is vast, and an overview is not easy to achieve. In this pedagogical…

统计力学 · 物理学 2010-01-04 Michael Kastner

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-05-11 Paul Fearnhead , Benjamin M. Taylor

Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-05-27 Jerome P. Nilmeier , Gavin E. Crooks , David D. L. Minh , John D. Chodera

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

In recent years the Swap Monte Carlo algorithm has led to remarkable progress in equilibrating supercooled model liquids at low temperatures. Applications have so far been limited to systems composed of spherical particles, however, whereas…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2025-09-05 Till Böhmer , Jeppe C. Dyre , Lorenzo Costigliola

We describe a general strategy for sampling configurations from a given distribution, NOT based on the standard Metropolis (Markov chain) strategy. It uses the fact that nontrivial problems in statistical physics are high dimensional and…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 P. Grassberger

Since its first description fifty years ago, the Metropolis Monte Carlo method has been used in a variety of different ways for the simulation of continuum quantum many-body systems. This paper will consider some of the generalizations of…

计算物理 · 物理学 2009-11-10 D. M. Ceperley

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-05-25 Diego Tapias , David P. Sanders , Eduardo G. Altmann

Due to the complex characteristics of bottle-brush polymers, it became a challenge to develop an efficient algorithm for studying such macromolecules under various solvent conditions or some constraints in the space by using computer…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2011-07-08 Hsiao-Ping Hsu