相关论文: Precursory dynamics in threshold systems
Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by the nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by…
The earthquake-like model with a continuous distribution of static thresholds is used to describe the properties of solid friction. The evolution of the model is reduced to a master equation which can be solved analytically. This approach…
The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained.…
In many complex systems a continuous input of energy over time can be suddenly relaxed in the form of avalanches. Conventional avalanche models disregard the possibility of internal dynamical effects in the inter-avalanche periods, and thus…
Mean-field coupled lattice maps are used to approximate the physics of driven threshold systems with long range interactions. However, they are incapable of modeling specific features of the dynamic instability responsible for generating…
A simple one-dimensional cellular automaton model with threshold dynamics is introduced. The cumulative distribution of the size of the relaxations is analytically computed and behaves as a power law with an exponent equal to -1. This…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
We present theoretical arguments and simulation data indicating that the scaling of earthquake events in models of faults with long-range stress transfer is composed of at least three distinct regions. These regions correspond to three…
Studying the effect of mechanical perturbations on granular systems is crucial for understanding soil stability, avalanches, and earthquakes. We investigate a granular system as a laboratory proxy for fault gouge. When subjected to a slow…
A dynamic earthquake source process is modeled by assuming interaction among frictional heat, fluid pressure, and inelastic porosity. In particular, fluid pressure increase due to frictional heating (thermal pressurization effect) and fluid…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…
Mean field slider block models have provided an important entry point for understanding the behavior of discrete driven threshold systems. We present a method of constructing these models with an arbitrary frictional weakening function.…
A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
Scaling ideas and renormalization group approaches proved crucial for a deep understanding and classification of critical phenomena in thermal equilibrium. Over the past decades, these powerful conceptual and mathematical tools were…
We present a one-dimensional numerical model based on elastically coupled sliders on a frictional incline of variable tilt. This very simple approach makes possible to study the precursors to the avalanche and to provide a rationalization…