相关论文: Detecting nonlinearity in multivariate time series

In this article, it is described how to use statistical data analysis to obtain models directly from data. The focus is put on finding nonlinearities within a generalized additive model. These models are found by the means of backfitting…

Temporal data are increasingly prevalent in modern data science. A fundamental question is whether two time series are related or not. Existing approaches often have limitations, such as relying on parametric assumptions, detecting only…

In todays age of data, discovering relationships between different variables is an interesting and a challenging problem. This problem becomes even more critical with regards to complex dynamical systems like weather forecasting and…

In many real-world causal inference applications, the primary outcomes (labels) are often partially missing, especially if they are expensive or difficult to collect. If the missingness depends on covariates (i.e., missingness is not…

We describe an exact test of the null hypothesis that a Markov chain is nth order versus the alternate hypothesis that it is $(n+1)$-th order. The procedure does not rely on asymptotic properties, but instead builds up the test statistic…

Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an underestimation of…

The research paper addresses linear decomposition of time series of non-additive metrics that allows for the identification and interpretation of contributing factors (input features) of variance. Non-additive metrics, such as ratios, are…

An important issue in functional time series analysis is whether an observed series comes from a purely random process. We extend the BDS test, a widely-used nonlinear independence test, to the functional time series. Like the BDS test in…

This paper proposes a class of parametric multiple-index time series models that involve linear combinations of time trends, stationary variables and unit root processes as regressors. The inclusion of the three different types of time…

In stationary subspace analysis (SSA) one assumes that the observable p-variate time series is a linear mixture of a k-variate nonstationary time series and a (p-k)-variate stationary time series. The aim is then to estimate the unmixing…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range of tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing…

In this paper we propose statistical inference tools for the covariance operators of functional time series in the two sample and change point problem. In contrast to most of the literature the focus of our approach is not testing the null…

In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…

The primary benefit of identifying a valid surrogate marker is the ability to use it in a future trial to test for a treatment effect with shorter follow-up time or less cost. However, previous work has demonstrated potential heterogeneity…

Classical and more recent tests for detecting distributional changes in multivariate time series often lack power against alternatives that involve changes in the cross-sectional dependence structure. To be able to detect such changes…

Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…

Optimizing the reliability and the robustness of a design is important but often unaffordable due to high sample requirements. Surrogate models based on statistical and machine learning methods are used to increase the sample efficiency.…

In this paper we study the asymptotics of linear regression in settings with non-Gaussian covariates where the covariates exhibit a linear dependency structure, departing from the standard assumption of independence. We model the covariates…

Identifying dependency in multivariate data is a common inference task that arises in numerous applications. However, existing nonparametric independence tests typically require computation that scales at least quadratically with the sample…