相关论文: Detecting nonlinearity in multivariate time series

The transition of the power grid requires new technologies and methodologies, which can only be developed and tested in simulations. Especially larger simulation setups with many levels of detail can become quite slow. Therefore, the number…

Two numerical methods are proposed for detection of coupling between multiple time series generated by deterministic nonlinear systems. The first detects interdependence or the existence of coupling between time series. The second…

A general method for testing nonlinearity in time series is described and applied to measurements of different pressure data inside the draft tube surge of a real Francis turbine. Comparing the current original time series to an ensemble of…

The absence of time-reversal symmetry is a fundamental property of many nonlinear time series. Here, we propose a new set of statistical tests for time series irreversibility based on standard and horizontal visibility graphs. Specifically,…

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Statistical differentiability of the measure along the reconstructed trajectory is a good candidate to quantify determinism in time series. The procedure is based upon a formula that explicitly shows the sensitivity of the measure to…

The method of constrained randomisation is applied to three-dimensional simulated galaxy distributions. With this technique we generate for a given data set surrogate data sets which have the same linear properties as the original data…

Systematic exploration of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is challenged by the curse of dimensionality and their inherent stochasticity. We present a multi-stage pipeline integrating the systematic design of experiments with machine learning…

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Conditional-independence-based discovery uses statistical tests to identify a graphical model that represents the independence structure of variables in a dataset. These tests, however, can be unreliable, and algorithms are sensitive to…

A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying…

Statistical inference for stochastic processes with time-varying spectral characteristics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We develop a nonparametric test for stationarity against the alternative of a smoothly…

We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and (ii) the variance of the measurement error is undetermined…

One of the main challenges in surrogate modeling is the limited availability of data due to resource constraints associated with computationally expensive simulations. Multi-fidelity methods provide a solution by chaining models in a…

We present a hybrid sampling-surrogate approach for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty quantification in nonlinear dynamical systems. Our motivation is to enable rapid uncertainty quantification in complex mechanical systems…

In this paper we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap assisted test based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic, which…

We discuss the use of multivariate Granger causality in presence of redundant variables: the application of the standard analysis, in this case, leads to under-estimation of causalities. Using the un-normalized version of the causality…

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs with multiple running variables arise in a growing number of empirical applications, including geographic boundaries and multi-score assignment rules. Although recent methodological work has extended…

Emulating high-accuracy computationally expensive models is crucial for tasks requiring numerous model evaluations, such as uncertainty quantification and optimization. When lower-fidelity models are available, they can be used to improve…

Surrogate markers are most commonly studied within the context of randomized clinical trials. However, the need for alternative outcomes extends beyond these settings and may be more pronounced in real-world public health and social science…