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We consider how increasingly available observational data can be used to improve the design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We seek to design a prospective RCT, with the intent of using an Empirical Bayes estimator to shrink the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-15 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Luke Miratrix

Augmenting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with external data may increase power at the risk of introducing bias. To select and analyze the experiment (RCT alone or combined with external data) with the optimal bias-variance tradeoff,…

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard for analyzing treatment effects, but high costs and ethical concerns can limit recruitment, potentially leading to invalid inferences. Incorporating external trial data with similar…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-09 Yujia Gu , Hanzhong Liu , Wei Ma

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are pivotal in generating internally valid estimates with minimal assumptions, serving as a cornerstone for researchers dedicated to advancing causal inference methods. However, extending these findings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-28 Melody Y Huang , Harsh Parikh

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

In machine learning applications, distribution shifts between training and target environments can lead to significant drops in model performance. This study investigates the impact of such shifts on binary classification models within the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-20 Minji Kim , Seong Jin Lee , Bumsik Kim

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the causal effect of a treatment; however, they often have limited sample sizes and sometimes poor generalizability. On the other hand, non-randomized, observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-23 Shuxiao Chen , Bo Zhang , Ting Ye

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-22 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

As clinical decision-making increasingly moves toward individualized and context-specific treatment recommendations, reliance on any single evidence source, randomized or observational, may be insufficient. Principled integration of…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

Subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) constitute an important component of the drug development process in precision medicine. In particular, subgroup analyses of early-stage trials often influence the design and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-12 Daniel Schwartz , Riddhiman Saha , Steffen Ventz , Lorenzo Trippa

External controls (ECs) from historical trials or real-world data have gained increasing attention as a way to augment hybrid and single-arm trials, especially when balanced randomization is infeasible. While most existing work has focused…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-15 Yujing Gao , Xiang Zhang , Shu Yang

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Ahmed Boughdiri , Clément Berenfeld , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design for treatment evaluation, where a randomized controlled trial is augmented with external control data from a previous trial or a real world data source. The hybrid control design has the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Zhiwei Zhang , Peisong Han , Wei Zhang

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large…

The integration of real-world data (RWD) and randomized controlled trials (RCT) is increasingly important for advancing causal inference in scientific research. This combination holds great promise for enhancing the efficiency of causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Xi Lin , Jens Magelund Tarp , Robin J. Evans

A randomized trial and an analysis of observational data designed to emulate the trial sample observations separately, but have the same eligibility criteria, collect information on some shared baseline covariates, and compare the effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson , James M. Robins , Miguel A. Hernán

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-11 Devin Incerti , Michael T Bretscher , Ray Lin , Chris Harbron