相关论文: Algometrics: Forecasting Under Algorithmic Feedbac…

Financial market risk forecasting involves applying mathematical models, historical data analysis and statistical methods to estimate the impact of future market movements on investments. This process is crucial for investors to develop…

On a variety of complex decision-making tasks, from doctors prescribing treatment to judges setting bail, machine learning algorithms have been shown to outperform expert human judgments. One complication, however, is that it is often…

While current machine learning models have impressive performance over a wide range of applications, their large size and complexity render them unsuitable for tasks such as remote monitoring on edge devices with limited storage and…

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they…

When deployed in the real world, machine learning models inevitably encounter changes in the data distribution, and certain -- but not all -- distribution shifts could result in significant performance degradation. In practice, it may make…

Despite high-profile successes in the field of Artificial Intelligence, machine-driven technologies still suffer important limitations, particularly for complex tasks where creativity, planning, common sense, intuition, or learning from…

Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…

In this paper, we propose a new procedure for unconditional and conditional forecasting in agent-based models. The proposed algorithm is based on the application of amortized neural networks and consists of two steps. The first step…

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

The impact of predictive algorithms on people's lives and livelihoods has been noted in medicine, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions. Most of these algorithms are developed using data and human capital from highly developed…

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the…

Advances in machine learning and the increasing availability of high-dimensional data have led to the proliferation of social science research that uses the predictions of machine learning models as proxies for measures of human activity or…

Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…

The availability of deep hedging has opened new horizons for solving hedging problems under a large variety of realistic market conditions. At the same time, any model - be it a traditional stochastic model or a market generator - is at…

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each…

Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection…

Energy forecasting has attracted enormous attention over the last few decades, with novel proposals related to the use of heterogeneous data sources, probabilistic forecasting, online learn-ing, etc. A key aspect that emerged is that…

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…