相关论文: Valid and Expressive Copulas for Irregular Multiva…

Joint probabilistic modeling is essential for forecasting irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) to accurately quantify uncertainty. Existing approaches often struggle to balance model expressivity with consistent marginalization,…

Copulas are popular as models for multivariate dependence because they allow the marginal densities and the joint dependence to be modeled separately. However, they usually require that the transformation from uniform marginals to the…

Irregular Multivariate Time Series (IMTS) are characterized by uneven intervals between consecutive timestamps, which carry sampling pattern information valuable and informative for learning temporal and variable dependencies. In addition,…

Multivariate time series (MTS) data often include a heterogeneous mix of non-Gaussian distributional features (asymmetry, multimodality, heavy tails) and data types (continuous and discrete variables). Traditional MTS methods based on…

Copulas are a powerful tool for modeling multivariate distributions as they allow to separately estimate the univariate marginal distributions and the joint dependency structure. However, known parametric copulas offer limited flexibility…

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

Multivariate mixed-type outcomes are difficult to model jointly, and additional complexity arises when both marginal effects and dependence structures vary with a covariate such as age or time. Existing approaches often impose restrictive…

Probabilistic forecasting models for joint distributions of targets in irregular time series with missing values are a heavily under-researched area in machine learning, with, to the best of our knowledge, only two Models have been…

Irregular multivariate time series forecasting (IMTSF) is challenging due to non-uniform sampling and variable asynchronicity. These irregularities violate the equidistant assumptions of standard models, hindering local temporal modeling…

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has…

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is usually described by a joint model which uses shared or correlated latent effects to capture associations between the two processes. Under this framework, the joint distribution of…

We propose notions of calibration for probabilistic forecasts of general multivariate quantities. Probabilistic copula calibration is a natural analogue of probabilistic calibration in the univariate setting. It can be assessed empirically…

We propose to construct copulas from the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure of a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution,…

We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…

Our article addresses the problem of flexibly estimating a multivariate density while also attempting to estimate its marginals correctly. We do so by proposing two new estimators that try to capture the best features of mixture of normals…

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Dependence modeling of multivariate count data has garnered significant attention in recent years. Multivariate elliptical copulas are typically preferred in statistical literature to analyze dependence between repeated measurements of…

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive…

Copulas allow a flexible and simultaneous modeling of complicated dependence structures together with various marginal distributions. Especially if the density function can be represented as the product of the marginal density functions and…

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified…