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We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

Evaluating treatments received by one population for application to a different target population of scientific interest is a central problem in causal inference from observational studies. We study the minimax linear estimator of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-03-01 David A. Hirshberg , Arian Maleki , Jose R. Zubizarreta

In experimental design, we are given a large collection of vectors, each with a hidden response value that we assume derives from an underlying linear model, and we wish to pick a small subset of the vectors such that querying the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-02-05 Michał Dereziński , Kenneth L. Clarkson , Michael W. Mahoney , Manfred K. Warmuth

In linear regression we wish to estimate the optimum linear least squares predictor for a distribution over $d$-dimensional input points and real-valued responses, based on a small sample. Under standard random design analysis, where the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Michał Dereziński , Manfred K. Warmuth , Daniel Hsu

We develop an approach for estimating models described via conditional moment restrictions, with a prototypical application being non-parametric instrumental variable regression. We introduce a min-max criterion function, under which the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-06-15 Nishanth Dikkala , Greg Lewis , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Designs which are minimax in the presence of model misspecifications have been constructed so as to minimize the maximum, over classes of alternate response models, of the integrated mean squared error of the predicted values. This mean…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-05 Douglas P. Wiens

This work studies an experimental design problem where {the values of a predictor variable, denoted by $x$}, are to be determined with the goal of estimating a function $m(x)$, which is observed with noise. A linear model is fitted to…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-03 David Azriel

We focus on the problem of manifold estimation: given a set of observations sampled close to some unknown submanifold $M$, one wants to recover information about the geometry of $M$. Minimax estimators which have been proposed so far all…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-27 Vincent Divol

Experimental designs that are minimax in the presence of model misspecifications have been constructed so as to minimize the maximum, over classes of alternate response models, of the integrated mean squared error of the predicted values.…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-27 Rui Hu , Douglas P. Wiens

A general lower bound is developed for the minimax risk when estimating an arbitrary functional. The bound is based on testing two composite hypotheses and is shown to be effective in estimating the nonsmooth functional…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-05-17 T. Tony Cai , Mark G. Low

For statistical decision problems with finite parameter space, it is well-known that the upper value (minimax value) agrees with the lower value (maximin value). Only under a generalized notion of prior does such an equivalence carry over…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-27 Haosui Duanmu , Daniel M. Roy , David Schrittesser

Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: i.e., the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g.,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2007-07-13 Martin J. Wainwright

Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-04 Christopher Harshaw , Joel A. Middleton , Fredrik Sävje

Random sampling is an essential tool in the processing and transmission of data. It is used to summarize data too large to store or manipulate and meet resource constraints on bandwidth or battery power. Estimators that are applied to the…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2015-03-19 Edith Cohen , Haim Kaplan

We investigate the problem of jointly testing a pair of composite hypotheses and, depending on the test result, estimating a random parameter under distributional uncertainties. Specifically, it is assumed that the distribution of the data…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-27 Dominik Reinhard , Michael Fauß , Abdelhak M. Zoubir

For nonparametric regression with one-sided errors and a boundary curve model for Poisson point processes we consider the problem of efficient estimation for linear functionals. The minimax optimal rate is obtained by an unbiased estimation…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-09-25 Markus Reiß , Leonie Selk

We want to reconstruct a signal based on inhomogeneous data (the amount of data can vary strongly), using the model of regression with a random design. Our aim is to understand the consequences of inhomogeneity on the accuracy of estimation…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-16 Stéphane Gaiffas

Many works in statistics aim at designing a universal estimation procedure, that is, an estimator that would converge to the best approximation of the (unknown) data generating distribution in a model, without any assumption on this…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-14 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

We consider the problem of designing minimax estimators for estimating the parameters of a probability distribution. Unlike classical approaches such as the MLE and minimum distance estimators, we consider an algorithmic approach for…

Researchers often turn to block randomization to increase the precision of their inference or due to practical considerations, such as in multisite trials. However, if the number of treatments under consideration is large it might not be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Taehyeon Koo , Nicole E. Pashley
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