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Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-02 Yoichi Chikahara

Learning causal relationships between variables is a well-studied problem in statistics, with many important applications in science. However, modeling real-world systems remain challenging, as most existing algorithms assume that the…

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-20 Seyedeh Baharan Khatami , Harsh Parikh , Haowei Chen , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

This paper focuses on the computational complexity of computing empirical plug-in estimates for causal effect queries. Given a causal graph and observational data, any identifiable causal query can be estimated from an expression over the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-11-18 Rina Dechter , Annie Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian

In addition to efficient statistical estimators of a treatment's effect, successful application of causal inference requires specifying assumptions about the mechanisms underlying observed data and testing whether they are valid, and to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Amit Sharma , Emre Kiciman

In this essay I discuss potential outcome and graphical approaches to causality, and their relevance for empirical work in economics. I review some of the work on directed acyclic graphs, including the recent "The Book of Why," by Pearl and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-24 Guido W. Imbens

Pearl's front-door criterion provides a set of sufficient conditions for estimating the total causal effect from observational data in the presence of latent confounding, using the functional P(y | do(x := x*)) = \sum_z P(z | x*) \sum_x P(y…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-17 Carol Wu , Elina Robeva

The research questions that motivate transportation safety studies are causal in nature. Safety researchers typically use observational data to answer such questions, but often without appropriate causal inference methodology. The field of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2011-07-26 Vishesh Karwa , Aleksandra B. Slavković , Eric T. Donnell

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-27 AmirEmad Ghassami , Alan Yang , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-30 Sina Akbari , Fateme Jamshidi , Ehsan Mokhtarian , Matthew J. Vowels , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Unmeasured confounding, unethical exposure, and ill-defined interventions pose significant challenges to evaluating policy-relevant mediation estimands in medicine and public health. In observational studies involving harmful exposures, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Yifan Cui , Baoluo Sun

We present a precise definition of cause and effect in terms of a fundamental notion called unresponsiveness. Our definition is based on Savage's (1954) formulation of decision theory and departs from the traditional view of causation in…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Ross D. Shachter

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-03-21 Yishai Shimoni , Chen Yanover , Ehud Karavani , Yaara Goldschmnidt

Defining and identifying causal intervention effects for transmissible infectious disease outcomes is challenging because a treatment -- such as a vaccine -- given to one individual may affect the infection outcomes of others.…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-12-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Wen Wei Loh , Forrest W. Crawford

We study a constructive algorithm that approximates Gateaux derivatives for statistical functionals by finite differencing, with a focus on functionals that arise in causal inference. We study the case where probability distributions are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-16 Michael I. Jordan , Yixin Wang , Angela Zhou

This paper studies causal inference with observational data from a single large network. We consider a nonparametric model with interference in both potential outcomes and selection into treatment. Specifically, both stages may be the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-30 Michael P. Leung , Pantelis Loupos

In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-17 Konrad Menzel

This paper studies the problem of learning the correlation structure of a set of intervention functions defined on the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a causal model. This is useful when we are interested in jointly learning the causal…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-29 Virginia Aglietti , Theodoros Damoulas , Mauricio Álvarez , Javier González