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We propose a new framework for the analysis of current and future cosmological surveys, which combines perturbative methods (PT) on large scales with conditional simulation-based implicit inference (SBI) on small scales. This enables…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2023-09-20 Chirag Modi , Oliver H. E. Philcox

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-08-17 Yves Atchadé , Liwei Wang

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-19 Mila Gorecki , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-07 Samuel I. Berchuck , Youngsoo Baek , Felipe A. Medeiros , Andrea Agazzi

In recent years, there has been a remarkable development of simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms, and they have now been applied across a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological analyses. There are a number of key advantages to…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2025-03-18 Noemi Anau Montel , James Alvey , Christoph Weniger

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-05 Tobias Pielok , Bernd Bischl , David Rügamer

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Daolang Huang , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory's…

The multinomial probit (MNP) model is widely used to analyze categorical outcomes due to its ability to capture flexible substitution patterns among alternatives. Conventional likelihood based and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-08 Gyeongjun Kim , Yeseul Kang , Lucas Kock , Prateek Bansal , Keemin Sohn

We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the problem of parametric galaxy modeling, estimating posterior distributions of galaxy properties such as ellipticity and brightness for more than 100,000 images of galaxies taken from DC2, a…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2023-09-20 James J. Buchanan , Michael D. Schneider , Kerianne Pruett , Robert E. Armstrong

We introduce Bilby-MCMC, a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo sampling algorithm tuned for the analysis of gravitational waves from merging compact objects. Bilby-MCMC provides a parallel-tempered ensemble Metropolis-Hastings sampler with access to a…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2021-08-18 Gregory Ashton , Colm Talbot

Extracting maximum cosmological information from current and upcoming large-scale structure data requires going beyond summary statistics as currently used in likelihood-based inference. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) promises to enable…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2026-05-27 Giulio Scelfo , Satvik Mishra , Mauro Rigo , Roberto Trotta , Matteo Viel

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2018-04-11 Justin Alsing , Benjamin Wandelt , Stephen Feeney

We present GalSBI, a phenomenological model of the galaxy population for cosmological applications using simulation-based inference. The model is based on analytical parametrizations of galaxy luminosity functions, morphologies and spectral…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2025-06-09 Silvan Fischbacher , Tomasz Kacprzak , Luca Tortorelli , Beatrice Moser , Alexandre Refregier , Patrick Gebhardt , Daniel Gruen

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a promising approach to leverage high fidelity cosmological simulations and extract information from the non-Gaussian, non-linear scales that cannot be modeled analytically. However, scaling SBI to the…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2023-09-27 Chirag Modi , Shivam Pandey , Matthew Ho , ChangHoon Hahn , Bruno R'egaldo-Saint Blancard , Benjamin Wandelt

Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2022-01-26 Geetakrishnasai Gunapati , Anirudh Jain , P. K. Srijith , Shantanu Desai

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Joanna Dunkley , Martin Bucher , Pedro G. Ferreira , Kavilan Moodley , Constantinos Skordis

We propose a machine learning-based approach for parameter estimation of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs), leveraging normalizing flows to approximate the likelihood function. By training these flows on simulated data, we can generate…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2025-09-18 Iván Martín Vílchez , Carlos F. Sopuerta

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell