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Upcoming astronomical surveys will observe billions of galaxies across cosmic time, providing a unique opportunity to map the many pathways of galaxy assembly to an incredibly high resolution. However, the huge amount of data also poses an…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2022-11-08 Bingjie Wang , Joel Leja , Ashley Villar , Joshua S. Speagle

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

X-ray spectral fitting in high-energy astrophysics can be reliably accelerated using Machine Learning. In particular, Simulation-based Inference (SBI) produces accurate posterior distributions in the Gaussian and Poisson regime for…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2025-07-09 Simon Dupourqué , Didier Barret

Parameter estimation for gravitational-wave signals is computationally demanding due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the cost of repeated waveform generation in traditional Bayesian inference. These analyses require on…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2026-03-30 Sama Al-Shammari , Alexandre Göttel , Masaki Iwaya , Vivien Raymond

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables cosmological parameter estimation when closed-form likelihoods or models are unavailable. However, SBI relies on machine learning for neural compression and density estimation. This requires large…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2025-09-29 Alex A. Saoulis , Davide Piras , Niall Jeffrey , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Benjamin Joachimi

We introduce a framework that enables efficient sampling from learned probability distributions for MRI reconstruction. Different from conventional deep learning-based MRI reconstruction techniques, samples are drawn from the posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-21 Guanxiong Luo , Moritz Blumenthal , Martin Heide , Martin Uecker

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-29 Theo Gruner , Boris Belousov , Fabio Muratore , Daniel Palenicek , Jan Peters

Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Simon Dirmeier , Carlo Albert , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…

地球物理 · 物理学 2026-03-20 A. A. Saoulis , T. -S. Pham , A. M. G. Ferreira

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2020-06-03 Adam Moss

We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2020-05-29 Olga A. Doronina , Colin A. Z. Towery , Peter E. Hamlington

In the gravitational-wave analysis of pulsar-timing-array datasets, parameter estimation is usually performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to explore posterior probability densities. We introduce an alternative procedure that…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2024-05-16 Michele Vallisneri , Marco Crisostomi , Aaron D. Johnson , Patrick M. Meyers

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are thought to be one of the most exciting gravitational wave sources to be detected with LISA. Due to their complicated nature and weak amplitudes the detection and parameter estimation of such sources…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2013-01-04 Asad Ali , Nelson Christensen , Renate Meyer , Christian Röver

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-30 Ruoxi Jiang , Peter Y. Lu , Rebecca Willett

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Bayesian estimation methods for sparse blind deconvolution problems conventionally employ Bernoulli-Gaussian (BG) prior for modeling sparse sequences and utilize Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the estimation of unknowns.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-30 Burak Cevat Civek , Emre Ertin