相关论文: ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for …

Accurate wind power forecasting can help formulate scientific dispatch plans, which is of great significance for maintaining the safety, stability, and efficient operation of the power system. In recent years, wind power forecasting methods…

Accurate long-term predictions are the foundations for many machine learning applications and decision-making processes. Traditional time series approaches for prediction often focus on either autoregressive modeling, which relies solely on…

Spatio-temporal (ST) forecasting is critical for dynamic systems, yet existing methods predominantly rely on modeling a limited set of observed target variables. In this paper, we present the first systematic exploration of exogenous…

A novel methodology for short-term energy forecasting using an Extreme Learning Machine ($\mathtt{ELM}$) is proposed. Using six years of hourly data collected in Corsica (France) from multiple energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, thermal,…

To enhance the accuracy of power load forecasting in wind farms, this study introduces an advanced combined forecasting method that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO)…

Chaos is a fundamental feature of many complex dynamical systems, including weather systems and fluid turbulence. These systems are inherently difficult to predict due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Many chaotic systems…

Electric vertical-takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, recognized for their maneuverability and flexibility, offer a promising alternative to our transportation system. However, the operational effectiveness of these aircraft faces many…

Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC…

While exogenous variables have a major impact on performance improvement in time series analysis, inter-series correlation and time dependence among them are rarely considered in the present continuous methods. The dynamical systems of…

Accurate long-term forecasting of spatiotemporal dynamics remains a fundamental challenge across scientific and engineering domains. Existing machine learning methods often neglect governing physical laws and fail to quantify inherent…

Predicting rare extreme events such as wildfires from meteorological data requires models that remain reliable under evolving environmental conditions. This problem is inherently long-tailed: wildfire events are rare but high-impact, while…

Deep reinforcement learning has been able to solve various tasks successfully, however, due to the construction of policy gradient and training dynamics, tuning deep reinforcement learning models remains challenging. As one of the most…

Nowadays, wind power is considered as one of the most widely used renewable energy applications due to its efficient energy use and low pollution. In order to maintain high integration of wind power into the electricity market, efficient…

Trajectory prediction is a critical part of many AI applications, for example, the safe operation of autonomous vehicles. However, current methods are prone to making inconsistent and physically unrealistic predictions. We leverage insights…

Wind power forecasting has drawn increasing attention among researchers as the consumption of renewable energy grows. In this paper, we develop a deep learning approach based on encoder-decoder structure. Our model forecasts wind power…

High penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces significant uncertainty and intermittency into microgrid operations, posing challenges to economic and reliable scheduling. To address this, this paper proposes an end-to-end…

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually…

Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive…

The issue of the accuracy of wind speed/power forecasts is becoming more and more important as wind power production continues to increase year after year. Having accurate forecasts for the energy market clashes with intrinsic difficulties…

In recent years, ensemble weather forecasting have become a routine at all major weather prediction centres. These forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with different initial conditions or model…